This indicator shows the trends in greenhouse gas emissions in Slovenia, the main sources of emissions (by category and sector) and the comparison with other European Union countries (the EU-28). Emissions included in the emission trading system (EU ETS), as well as those not included, are presented. Emissions are expressed in Gg CO₂ equivalent.

Greenhouse gas emissions monitored within the emission inventory include carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O), F-gasses (such as hydrofluorocarbons (HFC), perfluorocarbons (PFC) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆). Greenhouse gas emissions are calculated in accordance with the IPCC methodology, which enables international comparability of data. Emissions are being calculated for transport, energy, industrial processes and the use of products, fuels in industry, fuels in households and commercial use, agriculture and waste. Land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) represents a special category.

Total GHG emissions in Slovenia excluding LULUCF were 16,106 kt CO2 eq in 2021, 21.9% below the value in the base year 1986 and 0.8% more than in 2020. Compared to 2005, which is the base year within the EU, emissions were lower by 22.0%. Including LULUCF, the country's emissions in 2021 were 13,001 kt CO2 eq. By 2050 Slovenia aims to reach climate neutrality, which means that emissions are equal to sinks, i.e. the total emissions with LULUCF are zero.

In the total share of GHG emissions, CO2 has the largest contribution in Slovenia (as much as 81.1% in 2021). CO2 is mainly emitted during the combustion of fuels and from industrial processes. It is followed by methane (12.9%), which mainly comes from waste and agriculture, and nitrous oxide (4.2%), which is also mainly produced in agriculture. Emissions of F-gases, which include hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), are very small, but their contribution to global warming is not negligible (1.8%) due to their high greenhouse effect.

Most GHG emissions are caused by fossil fuels combustion, with the energy sector (production of electricity and heat) and transport (road traffic) together accounting for almost 60% of Slovenian emissions.

In the past, most emissions were generated in the energy sector, but after 2014 they gradually decreased due to the closure of the thermal power plant in Trbovlje, more efficient electricity production in the Šoštanj thermal power plant with the start-up of Unit 6, and increased use of biomass. Emissions in 2021 were therefore 38.6% lower than in 1986 and 34.9% lower than in 2005.

Emissions from transport, where emissions from road traffic dominate with 99%, have increased since 1986, by as much as 200% until 2008. With the onset of the economic crisis in 2009, they dropped sharply. In the following years the trend was not constant, but emissions no longer reached the 2008 level. In 2020, emissions from transport fell temporarily due to the measures taken during the COVID-19 epidemic, by 18.7% compared to the previous year, but already in 2021 they increased again and were 154% higher than in 1986 and 18.3% higher than in 2005.

Emissions from the use of fuels in manufacturing and construction were 58% lower in 2021 than in the base year 1986 and 29.6% lower than in 2005. Historically, the main impact on reducing emissions has been the substitution of solid fuels by natural gas, while in in the most recent period, extraordinary events such as the global financial crisis at the end of 2008 and the epidemic in 2020 have had an impact on reduction of these emissions.

Emissions from the use of fuels in other sectors, which are mostly from buildings, vary over the years due to temperature fluctuations in winter and changes in the use of woody biomass in households. Despite the varied year-on-year trend, a strong decreasing trend can be observed over the period; in 2021, emissions were 52% lower than in 1986, and 53.8% lower than in 2005. In recent years this decrease is largely due to milder winters, but also due to improved building insulation and increased use of wood and heat pumps for heating.

Fugitive emissions from fuels accounted for only 2.2% of the sector’s emissions and were down 44.8% compared to 1986 and 37% compared to 2005.

Emissions from industrial processes and product use have historically followed the trends of emissions from fuel used in industry, with a particularly marked decrease after 2008 due to the reduction in production as a consequence of the global financial crisis. In recent years, however, emissions from this sector have not been decreasing any more, mainly due to the increased emissions of F-gases, which are used in refrigeration and air-conditioning appliances and for heating by heat pumps. The most important greenhouse gas in this sector is carbon dioxide with 67.1% of emissions, followed by HFCs with 25.1%, N₂O with 5.6%, SF₆ with 1.4% and PFCs with 0.8%. The main source of emissions has always been the production of mineral products, with cement and lime production alone accounting for 45.5% of emissions in this sector in 2021. In 2021, emissions were 29.9% lower than in 1986 and 20.3% lower than in 2005.

Agriculture, the second most important sector emitted 1,730 kt CO2 eq. in 2021, representing 11.3% of total emissions. It is the main source of methane and N₂O, contributing 63.2% of total methane emissions and 69.7% of total N₂O emissions in the country. Methane contributes 72.6%, N₂O 25.8%, while CO₂ represents only 1.6% of emissions in this sector. In 2021, emissions were 10.6% lower than in 1986 and similar to 2005. Emissions are decreasing in all key categories, but the biggest impact on total emissions is reduction CH₄ emissions from manure management due to the reduction in pig numbers and improved manure management on farms. Emissions from enteric fermentation decrease due to increase in dairy cattle production intensity, while emissions from agricultural land decreased due to better control of nitrogen input to soils. The largest share of agricultural emissions comes from enteric fermentation, contributing 58.0%, followed by emissions from agricultural land with 21.8%, with the remaining share coming from methane and N₂O emissions from livestock manure (18.6%) and CO₂ emissions from liming and urea use, which account for only 1.6% of emissions in this sector.

Methane emissions from the waste sector are the second largest source of methane, accounting for 17.9% of total methane emissions in Slovenia in 2021. Methane emissions from the sector account for 86.9%, with N₂O (9.8%) and CO₂ (3.3%) accounting for remainder. Solid waste management contributed 48.1% to total emissions from the sector, wastewater management 43.2%, composting 5.4% and waste incineration 3.3%. In 2021, emissions were 37.8% lower than in 1986 and 49.5% lower than in 2005. Emissions from municipal landfills started to decrease in 2005 and by 2021 had decreased by 63.3%, as a result of significant reduction in the amount of landfilled biodegradable waste and increasing the capture of landfill gas. Emissions from waste water, the second most important category in this sector, were 48.9% lower compared to the base year, mainly due to the capture of gas from waste water treatment plants and a decrease in industrial production.

In Slovenia, forests covered more than 58% of the land area and are an important source of GHG emissions reductions. Total net removals in the LULUCF sector in 2021 were -3,106 kt CO₂ eq and were 35.2% lower than in the base year 1986. The highest net sinks were reached in 2007. Since then, they have been declining, initially due to changes in the national forestry policy (adoption of the National Forestry Program), but after 2014, Slovenian forests were affected by natural disasters. Sanitary logging in damaged forests increased by about 50% in the period 2014-2018, making the LULUCF sector a source of GHG emissions. The condition of forests has improved over the last three years, but removals due to forest management in 2021 were still below the reference value, -3,270 kt CO₂ eq. The reference value is considered for accounting only for the period 2021 – 2025.

To achieve the EU’s GHG emissions targets, it is important to distinguish between emissions covered by the Emissions Trading System (ETS) and those outside the ETS (non-ETS). Emissions inside the ETS, which include all major electricity and heat producers and all energy-intensive industry, are decreasing due to the reduction of available emission allowances auctioned each year. In 2021, emissions from these installations in Slovenia decreased by 6.8% compared to the previous year.

Slovenia has a national target for emissions that are not covered by emissions trading and which countries can therefore influenced through measures and policies in these areas. Until 2025, these emissions may not exceed the emission allocations set out in Commission Implementation Decision 2023/1319. For 2021 this limit is 11,403.194 kt CO₂ eq. Slovenian non-ETS emissions in this year were 10,426 kt CO₂ eq, which is 8.6% below the maximum allowable emissions for that year. Considering LULUCF sector after accounting the emissions were 3.6% below this limit.

For more detailed data on non-ETS emissions see indicator PO01 in the Climate Mirror.

Climate policy

An important milestone in action on climate change was the adoption of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change at the 2015 United UN Climate Conference in Paris. This is the first universal and legally binding global climate agreement. A key objective of the Paris Agreement is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and dependence on fossil fuels through appropriate action and thereby limit the global temperature rise to less than two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The individual countries that signed the agreement have submitted, in accordance to their specificities, targets and action plans of measures and activities to achieve the common goal.

The 2030 emission reduction target for the EU is -55%. Compared to 1990, net EU GHG emissions in 2021 had fallen by 30%. This achievement includes emissions from international aviation and takes the carbon sink from the land use, land use change and forestry sector (LULUCF) into account.

The European Union’s original target was to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from sectors not covered by emissions trading system by 30% by 2030 compared to 2005. The reduction will be achieved by spreading efforts among Member States in the form of national targets. These have been set for Member States taking into account, in particular, their economic development.

Slovenia’s per capita gross domestic product is slightly below the EU average, which is reflected in the slightly softer target for Slovenia. By 2030, Slovenia's original target was to reduce emissions from sectors not included in the trading scheme by at least 15% compared to 2005, and by 2050 it must achieve climate neutrality. The main document setting the 2030 target is the National Energy and Climate Plan of the Republic of Slovenia (NEPN), adopted by the Slovenian Government in February 2020. In this document, Slovenia has set itself a more stringent target than the one set by the EU, namely the reduction of emissions from non-ETS by at least 20%, with the indicative target for total GHG emissions of 36% reduction by 2030 compared to 2005. In another important document The Long-term Climate Strategy (ReDPS50) climate neutrality by the middle of this century is set.

In early July 2021, the European Commission (EC) published the European Climate Law, which tightens the obligation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to at least 55% below 1990 levels by 2030. The “Fit to 55” package of regulatory proposals has been put in place, amending existing legislation already in the place to meet the new 2030 targets, including in the areas of GHG emissions reductions in the ETS and non-ETS sectors, energy efficiency and the use of RES. In line with the new EU target, Slovenia’s target to achieve at least a 27% reduction in emissions from non-ETS sectors by 2030 compared to 2005 has also been strengthened. Therefore Slovenia has to update NEPN accordingly and submit the new document to EC by the middle of the year 2024.