This indicator shows the trends in greenhouse gas emissions in Slovenia, the main sources of emissions (by category and sector) and the comparison with other European Union countries (the EU-28). Emissions included in the emission trading system (EU ETS), as well as those not included, are presented. Emissions are expressed in Gg CO₂ equivalent.

Greenhouse gas emissions monitored within the emission inventory include carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O ), F-gasses (such as hydrofluorocarbons (HFC), perfluorocarbons (PFC) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆). Greenhouse gas emissions are calculated in accordance with the IPCC methodology, which enables international comparability of data. Emissions are being calculated for transport, energy, industrial processes and the use of products, fuels in industry, fuels in households and commercial use, agriculture and waste. Land use, land use change and forestry represent a special category.

All EU countries fulfilled their commitments from the first Kyoto Protocol period. Old Member States (EU-15) had a common 2008–2012 period target: to reduce greenhouse emissions by 8% compared to the base year. Their target was exceeded by almost 4%. Within this common target, each EU-15 Member State had its individual target set in accordance with its relative wealth. Some of them had to reduce their emissions considerably, while others were allowed to increase them. In order to achieve their targets, four countries had to buy additional emission allowances (Austria, Denmark, Luxembourg and Spain). On the other hand, all new Member States achieved their Kyoto targets without buying additional allowances, with the Baltic states being the most successful in exceeding their targets. Overall, the Member States (EU-28) reduced their emissions by 19% compared to the base year, with sinks and international credits not being taken into account. For the achievement of its Kyoto target, Slovenia exceeded its target (-8%) by 3% by using the maximum level of allowed carbon sinks.

Total greenhouse gas emissions in Slovenia amounted to the equivalent of 17,502 Gg (gigagram = 1000 tonnes or 1 kilotonne of CO2) in 2018, which was 14.1% below the value in the base year of 1986 but 0.8% above the 2017 value. The greatest contributors to decreased emissions were the energy sector (-2.3%) and the fuel consumption sector in households and the commercial sector (-8.3%), while emissions from fuel combustion in the industry and in the transport sector were higher than in 2017 by 5.0% each.

In Slovenia, CO2 has the largest share (82.8% in 2018) of total GHG emissions. It is mostly generated in fuel combustion and industrial processes. It’s followed by methane (11.1%), originating from waste and agriculture, and nitrous oxide (4.3%), which is mostly generated in agriculture as well. Emissions of N2O from transport are notable as well. Although emissions of F-gases, such as hydrofluorocarbons (HFC), perfluorocarbons (PFC) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), are very low, their contribution to global warming is still significant (1.9%) due to their strong greenhouse effect.

Covering more than 58% of Slovenia's land area in 2018, forests are an important factor in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Estimated sinks from the land use, land use change and forestry sector (LULUCF) decreased significantly after 2014 due to damage caused by adverse effects (glaze, strong winds) and increased sanitary logging and in 2018, this sector did not represent a sink for the first time, as emissions were 234 Gg CO2 eq.

For meeting the EU 2020 targets, the division of emissions included in the ETS and those not included in the ETS is important. Emissions within ETS, which include all larger electricity and heat producers and all energy-demanding industries, will be reduced in the future due to the reduction of available emission allowances available via auctions. In 2018, emissions from these sources in Slovenia were higher by 2.0% compared to the preceding year.

Emissions that are not included in the ETS are particularly important for Slovenia because they can thus be influenced by countries through measures and policies in respected fields. These emissions may not exceed the quantities allocated to individual countries by Decisions 406/2009 and 634/2013. For Slovenia, the 2018 ceiling was 12,238 Gg of CO2 equivalent. Emissions in Slovenia reached 11,010 Gg of CO2 equivalent, which was 10.0% below the emission ceiling for that year.

Among sectors outside the ETS, the most important is transport, which contributed 52.9% of all emissions in 2018. Within the transport sector, most emissions are contributed by road transport (99% in 20178. Emissions from transport were increasing steeply up to 2008, when they were 39% higher than in 2005. In 2009, they decreased due to the onset of the economic crisis and increased again in 2011 and 2012. In the period 2013–2015 they decreased slightly again, which can be contributed to higher environmental awareness and sustainable mobility. However due to the increased economic growth, emissions in the last three years increased again and were in 2018 31.9% higher than in 2005.

The next important source is agriculture, which contributed 15.6% of emissions. In 2018, emissions from this sector were the same as in the previous year and were by 0.6% below the 2005 levels. The main reason for reduced emissions was the intensification of livestock farming, resulting in a reduced number of livestock and improved manure management in pig farming.

With a share of 11.9%, the use of fuel in households and the commercial-institutional sector are the third most important source of GHG emissions outside the ETS. In 2018, these emissions were 8.3% lower than in the preceding year and by as much as 46.4% below the 2005 level. Such a reduction was largely a result of mild winters in recent years as well as the improved thermal insulation of buildings and the increased use of wood for heating, as CO2 from biomass is not taken into account.

Other sources that contribute to emissions outside the ETS are as follows: other use of fuels in industry (5.6%), waste management (4.0%), other process-related emissions (4.1%) and other sources (fugitive emissions, the remainder of the energy sector, etc. [4.7%]).

The first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol was 2008–2012. The second commitment period began in 2013 and will end in 2020. Currently, the Kyoto Protocol covers less than a third of greenhouse gas emissions. Emission growth is the most rapid in the fastest-growing economies of developing countries. Without their participation, global warming will be impossible to halt.

In December 2015, 195 countries gathered at the climate conference in Paris. They adopted a universal, legally binding agreement to limit global warming. The agreement foresees a transition to a low-carbon society at the global level, extreme reduction in fossil fuel consumption and an increase in average global temperature by no more than 2oC compared to pre-industrial values. The agreement entered into force on 4 November 2016 and will limit emissions after 2020.

The policy of change pursued by the European Union is ambitious and involves all EU Member States. The adopted EU targets by 2020 are as follows:

• to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 20%;
• to increase the use of renewable energy sources in final energy consumption by 20%;
• to achieve a 10% share of biofuels in the total amount of fuels used for transport,
• to increase energy efficiency by 20%.

To meet the commitments from the Kyoto Protocol and to achieve a 20% cut in GHG emissions, Slovenia introduced numerous measures. Most measures are described in the Operational programme to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the period 2013–2020. In addition, the reduction of GHG emissions is also supported by the National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency for the period 2008–2016 (the Government of the Republic of Slovenia, 2008) and the National Action Plan for Renewable Energy sources for the period 2010–2020 (the Government of the Republic of Slovenia, 2010). At the EU level, there is also the Roadmap for moving to a competitive low-carbon economy in 2050 (European Commission, 2011).