This indicator shows past energy-related greenhouse gas emissions (of carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide (N₂O) and F-gases), Kyoto Protocol targets in the 2008–2012 period and analyses of their trends.

Scientific evidence shows that there is a correlation between greenhouse gas emissions and ambient temperature. As the quantity of greenhouse gas emissions of anthropogenic origin is intensively increasing due to increases in emissions, especially the energy use of fuels, there is a high likelihood of temperature increases in the future. On a global level, a campaign has been started with the objective of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to values that would have an “acceptable” impact on the climate. The Kyoto Protocol determines emissions for the 2008–2012 period with regard to the base year level. Energy use is the biggest source of greenhouse gas emissions, as it represented 81 % of all emissions in Slovenia in 2007. In the 1986–1992 period, energy-related greenhouse gas emissions were declining but since then, neglecting the peak in the mid 1990s, they have been growing due to fuel tourism. Consequently, these emissions were 4 % higher in 2007 compared to the year 1986. Non-energy related emissions decreased by 6 % in the 1986–2007 period. In 2007, both energy-related (0.7 %) and non-energy related (1.0 %) emissions increased. In the 2000–2007 period, emissions from the use of energy grew at an average annual rate of 1.5 %, which is substantially more than in the 1986–2007 period when the average annual growth rate was 0.2 %.

The highest share of energy-related greenhouse gas emissions for 2007 is that of CO₂ (96 %), whose main source is electricity and heat production, followed by transport. CH₄ represents 2 % with its main source being the mining industry. N₂O contributes 2 %, with the main source being transport followed by wood burning which is in wide use. In the 1986–2006 period, CO₂ and N₂O emissions increased by 5 % and 56 % respectively. The increase in CO₂ emissions originates in the fact that we were unable to separate the emission movements and economic growth with increased energy efficiency and the use of fuels with lower carbon content. The increase in N₂O emissions originated in a higher number of cars with catalytic converters. CH₄ emissions were reduced due to the cessation of mining activities.

In the 1986–2007 period, emissions from electricity and heat production reduced by 2.7 %, especially due to a better energy efficiency of thermal power plants and a reduction in the use of liquid fuels. In the 2000–2007 period, emissions increased by almost 20 % (an average annual growth of 2.6 %), while in 2007, there was a 3.3 % growth. The increase in emissions in the last seven years is the result of an increased need for electricity, while the structure of the thermal power sector remained the same (a lack of investments in new capacities) as well as of poor hydrological conditions in 2007.

In the 1986–2006 period, emissions from industry and construction dropped by 47.1 %. This reduction is the result of a restructuring of the industrial sector in the early 1990s, which consequently caused a reduction in the use of liquid and solid fuel and resulted in the growth of gaseous fuels. In the 2000–2007 period, emissions increased by 2.6 %. Initially, there was no clear trend of emissions, while in the 2003–2006 period emissions grew at an average annual growth rate of 6.3 %. In 2007, emissions dropped by 10 %. Growth in the 2003–2006 period is the result of increased production in processing industries with an unchanged structure of the economy – a substantial share of energy intensive branches (the manufacture of lime and cement, manufacture of metal and metal products, the paper industry, etc.) and an upturn in the construction industry. The reduction of emissions in 2007 is the result of structural changes in the industrial sector (a reduction in the share of energy intensive branches in added value), a distinctive reduction in the intensity of energy use and a growth in the use of electricity.

Transport is the most problematic sector, as emissions in the 1986–2007 period increased by 165 % (average annual growth of 4.6 %). The increase is the result of a higher number of vehicles, the covered kilometres and speed, with the impact of transit traffic playing an important part (especially since Slovenia’s accession to the EU). In the last seven years, average annual growth was slightly higher than in the 1986–2007 period, especially due to high growth in 2005, 2006 and 2007 when average annual growth rates stood at 6.6 %, 5.0 % and 12.5 % respectively. The more than double growth in 2007 compared to 2006 resulted from the EU’s enlargement to Bulgaria and Romania which substantially increased transit traffic through Slovenia and from the poor implementation of measures in this sector. Due to Slovenia’s small size, the increase in transit traffic (and fuel tourism in the 1990s) had a substantial impact on the country’s energy balance and thus also its emissions balance.

The opposite trend is evident in the sector of other emissions, where emissions continued to drop in 2007, decreasing by 19 % compared to the previous year. As regards the year 1986, these emissions have reduced by 20 %. Emissions in this sector have been dropping since 1999 due to reductions in the use of liquid fuel, while substantial reductions were evident in 2005 (8.6 %), 2006 (9.3 %) and especially 2007. There are several reasons: from high prices of fuel oil and better insulation of houses to changes in the choice of fuels. In 2007, there was a noticeable effect of the postponement of buying fuel oil due to an increase in prices.

The Ministry of the Environment and Spatial Planning prepared the first Operational Programme for Limiting Greenhouse Gas Emissions in order to meet Kyoto targets. Nevertheless, growth in emissions has continued in the last number of years. An analysis of the implementation of the operational programme has shown that the implementation of measures is unsatisfactory, so a new Operational Programme was adopted in 2009. It includes a review of measures and clearly determines the jurisdiction of individual ministries and deadlines for the implementation of measures. This will facilitate the monitoring of implementation and provide a range of indicators according to individual measures.

In addition to sinks, another factor influencing a reduction in GHG emissions will be the EU emissions trading scheme launched in 2005 on the basis of Directive 2003/87/EC. The trading itself does not directly enable a reduction in emissions but allows the involved parties to increase the cost-effectiveness of achieving the Community emission reductions target. One of the system’s elements is the allocation of allowances free of charge based on national allocation plans. By determining the total quantity of allowances, Member States stimulate EU-ETS operators of installations to implement measures to reduce GHG emissions. If an operator releases more emissions than there are free allowances, it has to buy the additional allowances. In meeting Kyoto targets, emissions include the quantity of awarded allowances in the 2008–2012 period. Allowances of EU-ETS operators in Slovenia are limited to 8299 kt CO₂. If operators release more emissions, these are included in the country’s emission balance where additional allowances were bought. This allows us to calculate the Kyoto target for sources not included in the EU-ETS to be 11,747 kt CO₂ equiv. By far the most important sector among sources not included in the EU-ETS is transport, which represents 46 % (Figure 3). This is especially problematic, as this is a sector recording high growth in the last number of years. Despite transport emissions from 2007, Kyoto targets for sources not included in the EU-ETS were not exceeded, as emissions amounted to 11,730 kt CO₂ equiv. This is the result of a substantial reduction in emissions in the sector of other emissions and in industry. Data on the use of energy for 2008 when considerable growth was recorded allow us to assume that emissions will increase substantially, which means that Slovenia will exceed the Kyoto target in the first year of the Kyoto period.
With 2012, the story on reducing GHG emissions will not be concluded but will gain in strength, as the EU has already adopted an ambitious target for the year 2020 on reducing GHG emissions by 20 % from the base year if an international agreement on reductions will not be concluded and by 30 % is the deal is struck (European Commission, 2007). For Slovenia, the 20 % reduction in emissions target is divided into a 21 % reduction in emissions of operators included in the EU-ETS and a 4 % increase in emissions from other sources from the 2005 base year. If a global deal, which was expected to be struck in Copenhagen in December of 2009, is reached, the targets will of course be comparably more demanding.