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[PB08] Projections of Greenhouse Gass Emissions
Key message
With the existing measures, total GHG emissions will remain at a similar level as projected today. Projections with additional measures show drastically reduction - by 36% up to 2030 and by 89% up to 2050. Projections show that it is possible to achieve set goals, but only with intensive implementation of measures.
Charts
JSI-EEC, project LIFE Climate Path 2050 (20. 04. 2021)
Previous emissions trend [kt CO2 equiv] | Emissions projection [kt CO2 equiv] | Emissions projection with additional measures [kt CO2 equiv] | Target emissions - upper boundry [kt CO2 equiv] | Target emissions - lower boundry [kt CO2 equiv] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | 20433.19 | ||||
2006 | 20633.35 | ||||
2007 | 20817.43 | ||||
2008 | 21543.28 | ||||
2009 | 19378.09 | ||||
2010 | 19613.54 | ||||
2011 | 19540.39 | ||||
2012 | 18917.61 | ||||
2013 | 18220.97 | ||||
2014 | 16581.50 | ||||
2015 | 16760.95 | ||||
2016 | 17616.46 | ||||
2017 | 17696.60 | ||||
2018 | 17521.74 | ||||
2019 | 17065.45 | ||||
2020 | 17173.66 | 16748.43 | |||
2025 | 17008.22 | 15806.87 | |||
2030 | 16928.24 | 13122.14 | 13077.24 | ||
2035 | 16856.83 | 9759.66 | |||
2040 | 16073.95 | 6970.35 | |||
2045 | 15941.10 | 4892.12 | |||
2050 | 15749.86 | 2313.01 | 4086.64 | 2043.32 |
JSI-EEC, project LIFE Climate Path 2050 (20. 04. 2021)
TOTAL - net emissions[kt CO2 eq] | LULUCF[kt CO2 eq] | Total - emissions[kt CO2 eq] | Waste[kt CO2 eq] | Agriculture[kt CO2 eq] | Industrial processes[kt CO2 eq] | Non energy sectors[kt CO2 eq] | Other sectors[kt CO2 eq] | Transport[kt CO2 eq] | Manufacturing industries and construction[kt CO2 eq] | Energy industries+ Fugitive emissions[kt CO2 eq] | Energy[kt CO2 eq] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | 13055.52 | -7377.67 | 20433.19 | 766.46 | 1713.82 | 1426.95 | 3907.24 | 2700.32 | 4406.82 | 2444.30 | 6974.51 | 16525.95 |
2006 | 13363.22 | -7270.14 | 20633.35 | 731.09 | 1713.63 | 1472.71 | 3917.43 | 2447.64 | 4642.73 | 2583.33 | 7042.22 | 16715.93 |
2007 | 13103.14 | -7714.29 | 20817.43 | 677.40 | 1769.69 | 1481.01 | 3928.11 | 2027.34 | 5246.23 | 2345.08 | 7270.66 | 16889.32 |
2008 | 14073.68 | -7469.60 | 21543.28 | 609.73 | 1692.75 | 1346.60 | 3649.08 | 2384.02 | 6166.83 | 2317.59 | 7025.76 | 17894.20 |
2009 | 11985.55 | -7392.54 | 19378.09 | 553.87 | 1705.59 | 1012.46 | 3271.93 | 2268.17 | 5162.79 | 1941.94 | 6733.27 | 16106.17 |
2010 | 12277.11 | -7336.43 | 19613.54 | 543.92 | 1675.23 | 1015.53 | 3234.69 | 2293.54 | 5303.28 | 1916.08 | 6865.95 | 16378.85 |
2011 | 12326.24 | -7214.15 | 19540.39 | 549.91 | 1657.25 | 1030.94 | 3238.09 | 2034.57 | 5654.17 | 1718.28 | 6895.28 | 16302.30 |
2012 | 11846.45 | -7071.16 | 18917.61 | 535.15 | 1641.75 | 1058.70 | 3235.60 | 1784.26 | 5673.42 | 1650.11 | 6574.22 | 15682.01 |
2013 | 12669.18 | -5551.78 | 18220.97 | 516.55 | 1627.28 | 1123.51 | 3267.35 | 1701.18 | 5372.68 | 1643.86 | 6235.89 | 14953.62 |
2014 | 17056.93 | 475.43 | 16581.50 | 486.90 | 1674.34 | 1162.84 | 3324.08 | 1408.03 | 5389.32 | 1649.90 | 4810.17 | 13257.42 |
2015 | 17350.77 | 589.82 | 16760.95 | 495.65 | 1714.36 | 1145.77 | 3355.79 | 1518.46 | 5360.38 | 1591.12 | 4935.20 | 13405.16 |
2016 | 18395.47 | 779.01 | 17616.46 | 490.66 | 1734.74 | 1144.97 | 3370.36 | 1583.47 | 5734.75 | 1598.04 | 5329.84 | 14246.10 |
2017 | 18620.53 | 923.92 | 17696.60 | 479.69 | 1700.90 | 1191.13 | 3371.72 | 1453.55 | 5865.06 | 1678.56 | 5327.72 | 14324.89 |
2018 | 18497.37 | 975.64 | 17521.74 | 443.24 | 1700.56 | 1214.37 | 3358.18 | 1351.08 | 5844.31 | 1774.12 | 5194.05 | 14163.56 |
2019 | 16964.00 | -101.45 | 17065.45 | 435.08 | 1718.38 | 1260.96 | 3414.43 | 1333.79 | 5635.18 | 1727.65 | 4954.41 | 13651.03 |
2020 WEM | 12309.91 | -4863.75 | 17173.66 | 464.71 | 1751.35 | 1207.28 | 3423.34 | 1275.47 | 5780.00 | 1691.74 | 5003.11 | 13750.32 |
2020 WAM | 13052.56 | -3695.87 | 16748.43 | 464.71 | 1734.34 | 1207.28 | 3406.32 | 1195.12 | 5699.59 | 1627.26 | 4820.14 | 13342.10 |
2025 WEM | 12603.02 | -4405.21 | 17008.22 | 355.35 | 1776.28 | 1145.61 | 3277.23 | 1005.79 | 6140.45 | 1725.28 | 4859.48 | 13730.99 |
2025 WAM | 12508.73 | -3298.14 | 15806.87 | 355.35 | 1716.35 | 1145.61 | 3217.30 | 886.38 | 5623.18 | 1518.57 | 4561.45 | 12589.57 |
2030 WEM | 11133.09 | -5795.14 | 16928.24 | 261.91 | 1801.19 | 1072.76 | 3135.85 | 799.48 | 6355.93 | 1675.70 | 4961.28 | 13792.39 |
2030 WAM | 9890.66 | -3231.48 | 13122.14 | 261.91 | 1699.51 | 1066.11 | 3027.53 | 629.47 | 4963.56 | 1276.48 | 3225.09 | 10094.61 |
2035 WEM | 13284.16 | -3572.66 | 16856.83 | 220.34 | 1816.20 | 1021.19 | 3057.74 | 657.96 | 6267.46 | 1731.82 | 5141.85 | 13799.09 |
2035 WAM | 6832.32 | -2927.34 | 9759.66 | 220.34 | 1618.19 | 1010.36 | 2848.89 | 453.10 | 3678.24 | 1165.61 | 1613.81 | 6910.76 |
2040 WEM | 13636.42 | -2437.53 | 16073.95 | 189.47 | 1831.20 | 999.34 | 3020.00 | 566.48 | 5995.10 | 1785.77 | 4706.59 | 13053.95 |
2040 WAM | 3852.11 | -3118.24 | 6970.35 | 189.47 | 1572.38 | 628.58 | 2390.43 | 310.85 | 1898.68 | 926.70 | 1443.69 | 4579.93 |
2045 WEM | 15567.31 | -373.79 | 15941.10 | 165.92 | 1845.82 | 1003.73 | 3015.47 | 502.61 | 5695.76 | 1837.72 | 4889.54 | 12925.63 |
2045 WAM | 1836.85 | -3055.27 | 4892.12 | 165.92 | 1456.53 | 521.59 | 2144.05 | 174.92 | 698.59 | 537.19 | 1337.37 | 2748.08 |
2050 WEM | 14954.40 | -795.46 | 15749.86 | 148.09 | 1860.40 | 1008.16 | 3016.65 | 454.56 | 5435.12 | 1884.24 | 4959.29 | 12733.21 |
2050 WAM | -1210.67 | -3523.68 | 2313.01 | 148.09 | 1342.92 | 471.32 | 1962.34 | 107.25 | 45.46 | 74.89 | 123.08 | 350.68 |
JSI-EEC, project LIFE Climate Path 2050 (20. 04. 2021)
Historical ETS emissions[kt CO2 equiv] | Projection of ETS emissions - WEM[kt CO2 equiv] | Projection of ETS emissions - WAM[kt CO2 equiv] | Indicative trajectory for cap for ETS emissions[kt CO2 equiv] | Historical nonETS emissions[kt CO2 equiv] | Projection of nonETS emissions - WEM[kt CO2 equiv] | Projection of nonETS emissions - WAM[kt CO2 equiv] | Target trajectory for nonETS emissions[kt CO2 equiv] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | 8400.46 | 11678.35 | ||||||
2006 | 8512.12 | 11780.82 | ||||||
2007 | 8765.03 | 11762.42 | ||||||
2008 | 8602.82 | 12785.83 | ||||||
2009 | 7875.18 | 11440.57 | ||||||
2010 | 7929.26 | 11608.59 | ||||||
2011 | 7802.68 | 11596.41 | ||||||
2012 | 7431.59 | 11333.66 | ||||||
2013 | 7389.98 | 7332.19 | 10829.27 | 12323.92 | ||||
2014 | 6115.29 | 7232.78 | 10464.36 | 12353.72 | ||||
2015 | 6109.59 | 7133.38 | 10649.39 | 12383.52 | ||||
2016 | 6478.66 | 7033.98 | 11135.79 | 12413.32 | ||||
2017 | 6570.03 | 6934.58 | 11124.88 | 12203.09 | ||||
2018 | 6491.91 | 6835.17 | 11027.83 | 12237.81 | ||||
2019 | 6253.60 | 6735.77 | 10809.90 | 12272.53 | ||||
2020 | 6316.29 | 6069.82 | 6636.37 | 10857.37 | 10678.61 | 12307.24 | ||
2025 | 6231.72 | 5814.84 | 5712.32 | 10776.50 | 9992.03 | 10824.96 | ||
2030 | 6301.43 | 4448.86 | 4788.26 | 10626.81 | 8673.28 | 9342.68 |
JSI-EEC, project LIFE Climate Path 2050 (20. 04. 2021)
Total - emissions[kt CO2 eq] | Waste[kt CO2 eq] | Agriculture[kt CO2 eq] | Industrial processes[kt CO2 eq] | Non energy sectors[kt CO2 eq] | Other sectors[kt CO2 eq] | Transport[kt CO2 eq] | Manufacturing industries and construction[kt CO2 eq] | Energy industries+ Fugitive emissions[kt CO2 eq] | Energy[kt CO2 eq] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005 | 11678.35 | 766.46 | 1713.82 | 453.61 | 2933.89 | 2700.32 | 4404.11 | 1049.04 | 590.98 | 8744.45 |
2006 | 11780.82 | 731.09 | 1713.63 | 475.36 | 2920.08 | 2447.64 | 4640.74 | 1167.08 | 605.27 | 8860.74 |
2007 | 11762.42 | 677.40 | 1769.69 | 507.69 | 2954.79 | 2027.34 | 5244.03 | 947.22 | 589.03 | 8807.63 |
2008 | 12785.83 | 609.73 | 1692.75 | 457.82 | 2760.30 | 2384.02 | 6164.77 | 943.87 | 532.86 | 10025.53 |
2009 | 11440.57 | 553.87 | 1705.59 | 427.54 | 2687.00 | 2268.17 | 5160.83 | 785.60 | 538.97 | 8753.57 |
2010 | 11608.59 | 543.92 | 1675.23 | 449.92 | 2669.08 | 2293.54 | 5301.32 | 779.00 | 565.65 | 8939.51 |
2011 | 11596.41 | 549.91 | 1657.25 | 448.37 | 2655.52 | 2034.57 | 5651.42 | 674.04 | 580.86 | 8940.89 |
2012 | 11333.66 | 535.15 | 1641.75 | 487.26 | 2664.16 | 1784.26 | 5671.14 | 650.49 | 563.61 | 8669.50 |
2013 | 10829.27 | 516.55 | 1627.28 | 468.91 | 2612.74 | 1701.18 | 5370.97 | 604.94 | 539.44 | 8216.53 |
2014 | 10464.36 | 486.90 | 1674.34 | 481.03 | 2642.27 | 1408.03 | 5387.47 | 595.39 | 431.20 | 7822.08 |
2015 | 10649.39 | 495.65 | 1714.36 | 512.47 | 2722.49 | 1518.46 | 5358.42 | 591.09 | 458.94 | 7926.91 |
2016 | 11135.79 | 490.66 | 1734.74 | 524.24 | 2749.64 | 1583.47 | 5732.74 | 586.04 | 483.90 | 8386.15 |
2017 | 11124.88 | 479.69 | 1700.90 | 499.07 | 2679.66 | 1453.55 | 5863.35 | 615.69 | 512.62 | 8445.22 |
2018 | 11027.83 | 443.24 | 1700.56 | 483.97 | 2627.78 | 1351.08 | 5842.32 | 686.88 | 519.78 | 8400.05 |
2019 | 10809.90 | 435.08 | 1718.38 | 530.63 | 2684.10 | 1333.79 | 5633.22 | 656.01 | 502.78 | 8125.80 |
2020 WEM | 10857.37 | 464.71 | 1751.35 | 497.08 | 2713.15 | 1275.47 | 5780.00 | 627.31 | 461.45 | 8144.23 |
2020 WAM | 10678.61 | 464.71 | 1734.34 | 497.08 | 2696.13 | 1195.12 | 5699.59 | 642.01 | 445.77 | 7982.48 |
2025 WEM | 10776.50 | 355.35 | 1776.28 | 418.91 | 2550.53 | 1005.79 | 6140.45 | 631.02 | 448.71 | 8225.97 |
2025 WAM | 9992.03 | 355.35 | 1716.35 | 418.91 | 2490.60 | 886.38 | 5623.18 | 581.99 | 409.88 | 7501.43 |
2030 WEM | 10626.81 | 261.91 | 1801.19 | 332.73 | 2395.83 | 799.48 | 6355.93 | 638.93 | 436.64 | 8230.98 |
2030 WAM | 8673.28 | 261.91 | 1699.51 | 332.73 | 2294.15 | 629.47 | 4963.56 | 478.25 | 307.85 | 6379.13 |
