81 % of greenhouse gas emissions in Slovenia are caused by energy use. The biggest source of emissions is energy and heat production followed by transport. In 2007, emissions increased mostly due to transport but grew at a slower rate than in the 2000–2007 period. Emissions were greatly reduced in general consumption and industry.
This indicator shows past energy-related greenhouse gas emissions (of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and F-gases), Kyoto Protocol targets in the 2008–2012 period and analyses of their trends.
Image EN1-1: Total energy and non-energy related greenhouse gas emissions in 2007 with energy-related greenhouse gas emissions classified by sector
Source: Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia, 2009; Jožef Stefan Institute, 2009.
Image EN1-2: Energy-related greenhouse gas emission by sector and non-energy related greenhouse gas emissions in the 1986–2007 period, Kyoto target emissions and target emissions with and without carbon sinks
Source: Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia, 2009; Ministry of the environment and spatial planning, 2009; Jožef Stefan Institute, 2009.
Image EN1-3: Emissions in the 2005–2007 period by emissions of operators subject to the EU ETS and sources not included in the EU ETS by sectors
Source: Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia, 2009; Ministry of the environment and spatial planning, 2009; Jožef Stefan Institute, 2009.
- reduction of GHG emissions by 8 % from the base year (CO2, N2O, CH4 in 1986 and F-gases in 1995) by 2008–2012;
- using the allowed quota of sinks (1320 kt CO2), actual average emissions in 2008–2012 should not exceed 20,046 kt CO2 equiv.;
- reduction of GHG emissions by 20 % or by 30 % by the year 2020 from the base year (by 20 % if a global climate deal is not struck and by 30 % if a global climate deal is struck).
Scientific evidence shows that there is a correlation between greenhouse gas emissions and ambient temperature. As the quantity of greenhouse gas emissions of anthropogenic origin is intensively increasing due to increases in emissions, especially the energy use of fuels, there is a high likelihood of temperature increases in the future. On a global level, a campaign has been started with the objective of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to values that would have an “acceptable” impact on the climate. The Kyoto Protocol determines emissions for the 2008–2012 period with regard to the base year level. Energy use is the biggest source of greenhouse gas emissions, as it represented 81 % of all emissions in Slovenia in 2007. In the 1986–1992 period, energy-related greenhouse gas emissions were declining but since then, neglecting the peak in the mid 1990s, they have been growing due to fuel tourism. Consequently, these emissions were 4 % higher in 2007 compared to the year 1986. Non-energy related emissions decreased by 6 % in the 1986–2007 period. In 2007, both energy-related (0.7 %) and non-energy related (1.0 %) emissions increased. In the 2000–2007 period, emissions from the use of energy grew at an average annual rate of 1.5 %, which is substantially more than in the 1986–2007 period when the average annual growth rate was 0.2 %.
The highest share of energy-related greenhouse gas emissions for 2007 is that of CO2 (96 %), whose main source is electricity and heat production, followed by transport. CH4 represents 2 % with its main source being the mining industry. N2O contributes 2 %, with the main source being transport followed by wood burning which is in wide use. In the 1986–2006 period, CO2 and N2O emissions increased by 5 % and 56 % respectively. The increase in CO2 emissions originates in the fact that we were unable to separate the emission movements and economic growth with increased energy efficiency and the use of fuels with lower carbon content. The increase in N2O emissions originated in a higher number of cars with catalytic converters. CH4 emissions were reduced due to the cessation of mining activities.
In the 1986–2007 period, emissions from electricity and heat production reduced by 2.7 %, especially due to a better energy efficiency of thermal power plants and a reduction in the use of liquid fuels. In the 2000–2007 period, emissions increased by almost 20 % (an average annual growth of 2.6 %), while in 2007, there was a 3.3 % growth. The increase in emissions in the last seven years is the result of an increased need for electricity, while the structure of the thermal power sector remained the same (a lack of investments in new capacities) as well as of poor hydrological conditions in 2007.
In the 1986–2006 period, emissions from industry and construction dropped by 47.1 %. This reduction is the result of a restructuring of the industrial sector in the early 1990s, which consequently caused a reduction in the use of liquid and solid fuel and resulted in the growth of gaseous fuels. In the 2000–2007 period, emissions increased by 2.6 %. Initially, there was no clear trend of emissions, while in the 2003–2006 period emissions grew at an average annual growth rate of 6.3 %. In 2007, emissions dropped by 10 %. Growth in the 2003–2006 period is the result of increased production in processing industries with an unchanged structure of the economy – a substantial share of energy intensive branches (the manufacture of lime and cement, manufacture of metal and metal products, the paper industry, etc.) and an upturn in the construction industry. The reduction of emissions in 2007 is the result of structural changes in the industrial sector (a reduction in the share of energy intensive branches in added value), a distinctive reduction in the intensity of energy use and a growth in the use of electricity.
Transport is the most problematic sector, as emissions in the 1986–2007 period increased by 165 % (average annual growth of 4.6 %). The increase is the result of a higher number of vehicles, the covered kilometres and speed, with the impact of transit traffic playing an important part (especially since Slovenia’s accession to the EU). In the last seven years, average annual growth was slightly higher than in the 1986–2007 period, especially due to high growth in 2005, 2006 and 2007 when average annual growth rates stood at 6.6 %, 5.0 % and 12.5 % respectively. The more than double growth in 2007 compared to 2006 resulted from the EU’s enlargement to Bulgaria and Romania which substantially increased transit traffic through Slovenia and from the poor implementation of measures in this sector. Due to Slovenia’s small size, the increase in transit traffic (and fuel tourism in the 1990s) had a substantial impact on the country’s energy balance and thus also its emissions balance.
The opposite trend is evident in the sector of other emissions, where emissions continued to drop in 2007, decreasing by 19 % compared to the previous year. As regards the year 1986, these emissions have reduced by 20 %. Emissions in this sector have been dropping since 1999 due to reductions in the use of liquid fuel, while substantial reductions were evident in 2005 (8.6 %), 2006 (9.3 %) and especially 2007. There are several reasons: from high prices of fuel oil and better insulation of houses to changes in the choice of fuels. In 2007, there was a noticeable effect of the postponement of buying fuel oil due to an increase in prices.
The Ministry of the Environment and Spatial Planning prepared the first Operational Programme for Limiting Greenhouse Gas Emissions in order to meet Kyoto targets. Nevertheless, growth in emissions has continued in the last number of years. An analysis of the implementation of the operational programme has shown that the implementation of measures is unsatisfactory, so a new Operational Programme was adopted in 2009. It includes a review of measures and clearly determines the jurisdiction of individual ministries and deadlines for the implementation of measures. This will facilitate the monitoring of implementation and provide a range of indicators according to individual measures.
In addition to sinks, another factor influencing a reduction in GHG emissions will be the EU emissions trading scheme launched in 2005 on the basis of Directive 2003/87/EC. The trading itself does not directly enable a reduction in emissions but allows the involved parties to increase the cost-effectiveness of achieving the Community emission reductions target. One of the system’s elements is the allocation of allowances free of charge based on national allocation plans. By determining the total quantity of allowances, Member States stimulate EU-ETS operators of installations to implement measures to reduce GHG emissions. If an operator releases more emissions than there are free allowances, it has to buy the additional allowances. In meeting Kyoto targets, emissions include the quantity of awarded allowances in the 2008–2012 period. Allowances of EU-ETS operators in Slovenia are limited to 8299 kt CO2. If operators release more emissions, these are included in the country’s emission balance where additional allowances were bought. This allows us to calculate the Kyoto target for sources not included in the EU-ETS to be 11,747 kt CO2 equiv. By far the most important sector among sources not included in the EU-ETS is transport, which represents 46 % (Figure 3). This is especially problematic, as this is a sector recording high growth in the last number of years. Despite transport emissions from 2007, Kyoto targets for sources not included in the EU-ETS were not exceeded, as emissions amounted to 11,730 kt CO2 equiv. This is the result of a substantial reduction in emissions in the sector of other emissions and in industry. Data on the use of energy for 2008 when considerable growth was recorded allow us to assume that emissions will increase substantially, which means that Slovenia will exceed the Kyoto target in the first year of the Kyoto period. With 2012, the story on reducing GHG emissions will not be concluded but will gain in strength, as the EU has already adopted an ambitious target for the year 2020 on reducing GHG emissions by 20 % from the base year if an international agreement on reductions will not be concluded and by 30 % is the deal is struck (European Commission, 2007). For Slovenia, the 20 % reduction in emissions target is divided into a 21 % reduction in emissions of operators included in the EU-ETS and a 4 % increase in emissions from other sources from the 2005 base year. If a global deal, which was expected to be struck in Copenhagen in December of 2009, is reached, the targets will of course be comparably more demanding.
Data for SloveniaObjectives summarised by: Resolucija o Nacionalnem programu varstva okolja 2005-2012 (Resolution on the National Environmental Action Plan 2005–2012, Official Gazette of the Republic of Slovenia, No. 2/06) and the proposal of the climate and energy package.
Source database or source: Official data on GHG emissions were used as sent on 15 April to UNFCCC and as located in the Central Data Repository (CDR) under Slovenia/United Nations/UNFCCC – UN Framework Convention on Climate Change data/UNFCCC – GHG Report 2009 (1986–2007 data) (upon preparing new records, data for previous years are often corrected).
Data administrator: The Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia, the Environment Office, Air Quality Sector, contact person: Tajda Mekinda Majaron.
Data acquisition date for this indicator: 8 December 2009.
Methodology and frequency of data collection for the indicator: Data are prepared on an annual basis and on the basis of data on activities (the use of fuels, number of animals, quantity of waste, industrial manufacturing, etc.), calorific value of fuels and emission factors. The recommended methodology has been prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The energy sector (CRF 1) is responsible for energy-related emissions, such as those arising from fuel combustion activities (CRF 1A) that are further divided into energy industries (CRF 1A1), manufacturing industries and construction (CRF 1A2), transport (CRF 1A3) and other sectors (CRF 1A4) that includes emissions from households, the services sector and fuel combustion in agriculture and forestry. In addition to emissions arising from fuel combustion activities, energy-related emissions also include fugitive emissions from fuels (CRF 1B) that are further classified into fugitive emissions from solid fuels (CRF 1.B.1) and fugitive emissions from oil and natural gas (CRF 1.B.2) that originate in the production of fuels (coal mines) or the transmission and distribution of oil and natural gas. Transmissions or production of electricity and heat in this text includes emissions from energy industries (CRF 1.A.1) and fugitive emissions (CRF 1.B).
Non-energy related GHG emissions include industry (CRF 2) (i.e. processes in manufacturing industries and construction without fossil fuel combustion including the production and consumption of fluorinated gases), agriculture (CRF 4) (i.e. domestic livestock (manure management and enteric fermentation) and emissions from fertilisers), waste (CRF 6) (i.e. emissions from landfill sites and incineration plants and waste water treatment) and other non-energy emissions (CRF 3) (i.e. solvent and other product use).
Ministry of the Environment and Spatial Planning, 2009. Operativni program zmanjševanja emisij toplogrednih plinov do leta 2012 – OPTGP-01 (Data source for the 2008–2012 emissions projection is the Operational Programme for Limiting Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 2010).
Data processing methodology: Total GHG emissions have been calculated as a weighted sum of gas emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O and F-gases). The global warming potential (GWP) has been determined by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change based on IPCC findings. GWP: CO2 = 1, CH4 = 21, N2O = 310, SF6 = 23900, HFC-134a = 1300, CF4 = 6500, C2F6 = 9200. The values of GWP are CO2 equivalents (CO2 equiv). For CO2, totals do not include emissions from biomass burning. Average annual rate of growth is calculated using: [(last year/base year)(1 / number of years) –1] x 100.
Information concerning data quality:
- Advantages and disadvantages of the indicator:
Advantages: Officially reported data that are calculated using internationally confirmed methods have been used to calculate the indicator. Data and procedures are reviewed by the UNFCCC.
- Relevance, accuracy, robustness, uncertainty:
Reliability of the indicator (archival data): Data reliability was estimated for 1986, 2002 and 2003. For absolute data it stands at 16 %, 13.1 % and 12 % and for trends for 2002 and 2003 at 4 % and 3 % respectively. The reliability of emission factors and activity data is estimated on the basis of an expert assessment. In 2003, the reliability of data on activities and emission factors for the transformations sector was improved due to using national emission factors and improving procedures for determining the quantity of used fuel.
Uncertainty of the indicator (scenarios/projections): /
- Overall assessment (1 = no major comments, 3 = data to be considered with reservation):
Completeness over time: 1
Completeness over space: 1
Other sources and literature:
- Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia, 2009. National Inventory Report.
- National Assembly of the Republic of Slovenia, 2002. Zakon o ratifikaciji Kjotskega protokola k Okvirni konvenciji Združenih narodov o spremembi podnebja (MKPOKSP) (Act Ratifying the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change).
- European Commission, 2007. Communication from the Commission to the European Council and the European Parliament – an energy policy for Europe.
- EU, 2009. Decision No. 406/2009/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 April 2009 on the effort of Member States to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to meet the Community’s greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments up to 2020.
- EU, 2009a. Directive 2009/29/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 April 2009 amending Directive 2003/87/EC so as to improve and extend the greenhouse gas emission allowance trading scheme of the Community.
- Ministry of the Environment and Spatial Planning, 2006. Operativni program zmanjševanja emisij toplogrednih plinov do leta 2012 (Operational Programme for Limiting Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 2012)
- Ministry of the Environment and Spatial Planning, 2008. Poročilo o izvajanju Operativnega programa zmanjšanja emisij toplogrednih plinov do leta 2012 (Report on the Implementation of the Operational Programme for Limiting Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 2012).
- Ministry of the Environment and Spatial Planning, 2009. Operativni program zmanjševanja emisij toplogrednih plinov do leta 2012 (OP TGP-01) (Operational Programme for Limiting Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 2012).