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[PB08] Projections of Greenhouse Gass Emissions
State

Key message
Neutral

Total greenhouse gas emissions are projected to remain at similar levels as today until 2030 under projection with existing measures, then decline. Under projection with additional measures emissions will decline faster. By 35% by 2030 and by 88% by 2050. Projections show that with intensive implementation of measures, it is possible to achieve the set targets.

Charts

Figure PB08-1: Historic GHG emissions and projections until 2050 with set targets
Sources:

IJS-EEC, NECP, 2025

Show data
Actual emissions[kt CO2 equiv] Projection with measures (WEM)[kt CO2 equiv] Projeciton with additional measures (WAM)[kt CO2 equiv] Target emissions - upper boundry[kt CO2 equiv] Target emissions - lower boundry[kt CO2 equiv]
2005 20596.14
2006 20766.96
2007 20946.26
2008 21670.62
2009 19499.96
2010 19726.11
2011 19651.48
2012 19022.15
2013 18323.55
2014 16660.47
2015 16850.22
2016 17734.32
2017 17818.51
2018 17655.56
2019 17131.71
2020 15903.49
2021 16049.33
2022 15557.67
2023 14804.43
2025 16499.43 15895.94
2030 16350.54 13416.71 13387.49 11327.87
2035 12087.53 7986.67
2040 11327.30 5778.51
2045 10213.89 4274.15
2050 9394.82 2564.63 4119.23 2059.61
Figure PB08-2: Projection of GHG emissions and sinks per sectors
Sources:

IJS-EEC, NECP, 2025

Show data
TOTAL - net emissions[kt CO2 eq] LULUCF[kt CO2 eq] Total - emissions[kt CO2 eq] Waste[kt CO2 eq] Agriculture[kt CO2 eq] Industrial processes[kt CO2 eq] Non energy sectors[kt CO2 eq] Other sectors[kt CO2 eq] Transport[kt CO2 eq] Manufacturing industries and construction[kt CO2 eq] Energy industries+ Fugitive emissions[kt CO2 eq] Energy[kt CO2 eq]
2005 13379.54 -7216.60 20596.14 827.90 1762.96 1394.84 3985.71 2724.16 4401.53 2465.84 7018.90 16610.43
2006 13565.54 -7201.42 20766.96 775.63 1758.99 1439.07 3973.68 2467.46 4637.57 2602.11 7086.15 16793.28
2007 13396.75 -7549.51 20946.26 716.72 1810.51 1449.02 3976.26 2050.78 5240.23 2364.20 7314.80 16970.01
2008 14373.94 -7296.68 21670.62 642.09 1733.09 1322.51 3697.69 2407.16 6159.43 2336.43 7069.91 17972.93
2009 12270.23 -7229.73 19499.96 586.20 1741.96 985.89 3314.05 2290.91 5159.04 1958.45 6777.51 16185.91
2010 12569.95 -7156.16 19726.11 574.10 1705.10 986.70 3265.91 2316.68 5299.52 1933.78 6910.23 16460.21
2011 12594.83 -7056.65 19651.48 585.74 1688.08 997.66 3271.48 2057.64 5649.79 1733.72 6938.84 16379.99
2012 12040.90 -6981.25 19022.15 572.84 1671.27 1023.93 3268.03 1805.78 5668.41 1664.18 6615.75 15754.12
2013 13036.32 -5287.23 18323.55 551.38 1655.47 1091.07 3297.92 1723.84 5367.58 1659.34 6274.88 15025.63
2014 17145.38 484.91 16660.47 518.88 1696.86 1128.28 3344.02 1425.81 5383.57 1665.67 4841.40 13316.45
2015 17430.33 580.10 16850.22 531.73 1735.51 1108.30 3375.55 1541.65 5353.93 1611.37 4967.73 13474.68
2016 18462.30 727.98 17734.32 539.91 1751.75 1114.71 3406.37 1614.13 5726.99 1622.22 5364.61 14327.95
2017 18542.22 723.71 17818.51 521.80 1713.38 1173.24 3408.41 1485.31 5856.36 1704.35 5364.08 14410.10
2018 18477.33 821.77 17655.56 482.24 1708.42 1196.23 3386.89 1378.99 5834.82 1826.15 5228.72 14268.67
2019 12603.48 -4528.23 17131.71 463.22 1723.61 1211.04 3397.87 1365.38 5624.64 1753.80 4990.02 13733.85
2020 11566.55 -4336.93 15903.49 440.11 1727.17 1153.71 3321.00 1366.31 4575.11 1712.53 4928.54 12582.49
2021 11730.64 -4318.69 16049.33 418.85 1727.93 1127.91 3274.68 1268.52 5204.63 1742.09 4559.41 12774.65
2022 11339.08 -4218.60 15557.67 379.63 1660.29 1095.31 3135.22 1281.04 5793.20 1620.39 3727.82 12422.45
2023 10513.31 -4291.12 14804.43 376.77 1631.98 1005.61 3014.36 1265.72 5363.65 1516.59 3644.11 11790.07
2025 WEM 16064.58 -434.85 16499.43 370.27 1725.92 1101.22 3197.41 1106.87 5992.71 1843.43 4359.02 13302.02
2025 WAM 15199.37 -696.57 15895.94 370.27 1725.92 1101.12 3197.31 1076.25 5802.93 1568.18 4251.26 12698.63
2030 WEM 15558.49 -792.05 16350.54 303.53 1719.28 1057.97 3080.79 914.83 6190.51 1847.02 4317.39 13269.75
2030 WAM 11328.13 -2088.58 13416.71 303.53 1698.41 1057.01 3058.96 823.39 4349.73 1357.76 3826.88 10357.75
2035 WEM 12159.65 72.11 12087.53 260.11 1734.55 1005.31 2999.96 754.43 5544.61 1916.22 872.31 9087.58
2035 WAM 6282.43 -1704.24 7986.67 260.11 1641.83 498.67 2400.61 608.95 2869.40 888.79 1218.92 5586.06
2040 WEM 11173.68 -153.62 11327.30 228.65 1749.99 982.37 2961.01 649.27 4507.02 1990.30 1219.70 8366.29
2040 WAM 3591.14 -2187.38 5778.51 228.65 1584.18 471.06 2283.90 441.71 1657.30 725.50 670.10 3494.61
2045 WEM 9572.58 -641.31 10213.89 224.73 1761.87 987.51 2974.11 576.48 3231.62 2048.43 1383.26 7239.78
2045 WAM 1645.75 -2628.40 4274.15 224.73 1525.39 467.67 2217.78 285.95 552.48 515.97 701.96 2056.37
2050 WEM 8844.83 -549.99 9394.82 200.09 1773.87 994.83 2968.79 523.56 2033.89 2104.21 1764.38 6426.03
2050 WAM 66.57 -2498.06 2564.63 200.09 1433.00 475.64 2108.73 124.70 21.63 87.91 221.65 455.90
Figure PB08-3: Projections of GHG emissions for sources not included in the ETS (nonETS) compared to targets
Sources:

IJS-CEU, NECP, 2025

Show data
Historical ETS emissions[kt CO2 eq] Projection of ETS emissions - WEM[kt CO2 eq] Projection of ETS emissions - WAM[kt CO2 eq] Indicative trajectory for cap for ETS emissions[kt CO2 eq] Historical nonETS emissions[kt CO2 eq] Projection of nonETS emissions - WEM[kt CO2 eq] Projection of nonETS emissions - WAM[kt CO2 eq] Target trajectory for nonETS emissions under EU regulation[kt CO2 eq] Target from NECP 2024[kt CO2 eq]
2005 8737.77 11855.65
2006 8836.98 11927.99
2007 9042.74 11901.33
2008 8753.91 12914.65
2009 7935.03 11562.96
2010 8002.03 11722.13
2011 7939.20 11709.53
2012 7579.85 11440.02
2013 7388.44 7495.23 10933.40 12323.92
2014 6113.76 7410.60 10544.86 12353.72
2015 6108.00 7325.97 10740.26 12383.52
2016 6369.05 7241.35 11363.27 12413.32
2017 6568.27 7156.72 11248.54 12203.09
2018 6490.34 7072.09 11163.23 12237.81
2019 6252.41 6987.47 10877.35 12272.53
2020 6094.62 6902.84 9807.30 9833.58 9833.58 12307.24
2021 5681.50 6544.59 10366.37 11403.19
2022 4861.18 6186.34 10694.81 11107.76
2023 4582.14 5828.09 10221.10 10813.74
2025 5648.30 5388.75 5111.60 10851.13 10507.19 10217.22
2030 5628.74 4930.18 3320.35 10721.80 8486.53 8654.62 8536.07
Figure PB08-4: Projetions of GHG emissions per sector for sources not included in the ETS (nonETS)
Sources:

IJS-EEC, NECP, 2025

Show data
Total - emissions[kt CO2 eq] Waste[kt CO2 eq] Agriculture[kt CO2 eq] Industrial processes[kt CO2 eq] Non energy sectors[kt CO2 eq] Other sectors[kt CO2 eq] Transport[kt CO2 eq] Manufacturing industries and construction[kt CO2 eq] Energy industries+ Fugitive emissions[kt CO2 eq] Energy[kt CO2 eq]
2005 11855.65 827.90 1762.96 435.86 3026.72 2724.16 4398.81 1070.58 635.37 8828.93
2006 11927.99 775.63 1758.99 455.29 2989.90 2467.46 4635.58 1185.86 649.20 8938.09
2007 11901.33 716.72 1810.51 485.77 3013.01 2050.78 5238.03 966.34 633.17 8888.32
2008 12914.65 642.09 1733.09 435.22 2810.40 2407.16 6157.37 962.71 577.01 10104.26
2009 11562.96 586.20 1741.96 401.49 2729.65 2290.91 5157.07 802.11 583.21 8833.31
2010 11722.13 574.10 1705.10 422.06 2701.27 2316.68 5297.57 796.70 609.92 9020.87
2011 11709.53 585.74 1688.08 417.13 2690.94 2057.64 5647.05 689.49 624.41 9018.58
2012 11440.02 572.84 1671.27 454.30 2698.41 1805.78 5666.13 664.56 605.15 8741.61
2013 10933.40 551.38 1655.47 438.01 2644.85 1723.84 5365.87 620.42 578.42 8288.55
2014 10544.86 518.88 1696.86 448.00 2663.74 1425.81 5381.72 611.15 462.43 7881.11
2015 10740.26 531.73 1735.51 476.59 2743.83 1541.65 5351.96 611.34 491.47 7996.42
2016 11363.27 539.91 1751.75 496.13 2787.79 1614.13 5724.98 717.69 518.67 8575.47
2017 11248.54 521.80 1713.38 482.94 2718.11 1485.31 5854.66 641.48 548.98 8530.43
2018 11163.23 482.24 1708.42 467.39 2658.06 1378.99 5832.83 738.91 554.44 8505.17
2019 10877.35 463.22 1723.61 481.90 2668.73 1365.38 5622.69 682.16 538.39 8208.62
2020 9807.30 440.11 1727.17 472.76 2640.04 1366.31 4573.55 688.91 538.48 7167.25
2021 10366.37 418.85 1727.93 454.91 2601.69 1268.52 5203.17 782.32 510.67 7764.68
2022 10694.81 379.63 1660.29 446.42 2486.34 1281.04 5791.52 679.55 456.36 8208.47
2023 10221.10 376.77 1631.98 445.26 2454.02 1265.72 5362.46 686.08 452.82 7767.08
2025 WEM 10851.13 370.27 1725.92 435.27 2531.46 1106.87 5992.71 715.44 504.65 8319.66
2025 WAM 10507.19 370.27 1725.92 435.18 2531.37 1076.25 5802.93 618.74 477.90 7975.82
2030 WEM 10721.80 303.53 1719.28 371.01 2393.82 914.83 6190.51 745.40 477.24 8327.98
2030 WAM 8486.53 303.53 1698.41 370.04 2371.99 823.39 4349.73 531.92 409.51 6114.54
Last modified
02.12.2025
Author(s)

Matjaž Česen, IJS-EEC

Matevž Pušnik, IJS-EEC