KAZALCI OKOLJA

Key message
Neutral

According to data available for Europe, the annual growing season has been lengthening, more intensively in northern and eastern Europe than in western and southern Europe and in the Mediterranean region (also in Slovenia). The lengthening of the growing season is expected to continue throughout Europe. Lengthening of the annual growing season will allow northward expansion of warm-season crops to areas that were not previously suitable while in the southern Europe the warmer conditions will allow the growing season to extend into winter. This is not to be expected in much of central and southeastern Europe, in Slovenia as well, where heat and summer’s drought will hinder the crop production.

 


The length of the annual growing season is the period between the day when the average daily air temperature in spring exceeds 5°C and the day when it drops below this value in autumn.

An air temperature of 5°C is generally recognised to be the lowest temperature threshold for plant vegetation. The 5°C temperature threshold is also used as one of the conditions for the classification of agro-ecological zones. In the context of climate change, it enables assessing the impact of changing climate on the development of plants and their environment. This indicator also serves as a tool in preparing for adaptation to new conditions, thus minimising the potential negative impacts of climate change.


Charts

Figure PP06-1: Average length of annual growing age within individual places, Slovenia, reference periods 1961-1990 and 1991-2016
Show data
1961-1990 1991-2016
Ljubljana 243 258
Novo mesto 238 252
Bilje 278 284
Slap pri Vipavi 276 288
Murska Sobota 237 245
Maribor 243 250
Rateče 187 201
Figure PP06-2: Changes of length of annual growing age in Ljubljana, 1961-2016
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growing season 5-y running average
1961 279
1962 227
1963 249 250.80
1964 256 240.20
1965 243 248.40
1966 226 247.20
1967 268 243
1968 243 241.20
1969 235 245.40
1970 234 245.80
1971 247 240.40
1972 270 238.60
1973 216 244.80
1974 226 243.20
1975 265 244.80
1976 239 252.60
1977 278 256.60
1978 255 248
1979 246 249.40
1980 222 238.20
1981 246 234.60
1982 222 232.40
1983 237 230
1984 235 229.40
1985 210 229.80
1986 243 228
1987 224 231.40
1988 228 241.40
1989 252 240.20
1990 260 252.20
1991 237 251
1992 284 255.60
1993 222 249.80
1994 275 251.60
1995 231 244.60
1996 246 246.20
1997 249 243.40
1998 230 254
1999 261 254
2000 284 260.20
2001 246 261.60
2002 280 263.20
2003 237 256.20
2004 269 261.60
2005 249 258.80
2006 273 259.20
2007 266 262.40
2008 239 263.20
2009 285 258
2010 253 260
2011 247 259
2012 276 264
2013 235 267
2014 310 268
2015 265
2016 256
Figure PP06-3: The rate of change in the growing season length , Europe, 1985-2014
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Goals

• To estimate the effect of climate change on plant development.
• To prepare adaptation procedures for the newly arising climatic conditions and mitigation of possible adverse effects.


The rise in average air temperatures and the increased frequency of days with temperatures exceeding the vegetation threshold influence the prolongation of the length of the annual cycle of vegetation in Slovenia. The latter has a non-homogeneous character, with appreciable deviations within the period in question (i.e. 1961-2009). The 5-year running average indicates a slight cyclical oscillation. The last cycle of 5-year running average values indicates an increase in the length of the annual cycle of vegetation since the 1990’s, which is also made strikingly evident by the comparison of average values for the periods of 1961-1990 and 1991-2016.

Based on various international studies, a prolongation of the annual cycle of vegetation in Europe has been observed. The analysis of the number of days with a positive minimum air temperature (frost-free days) for the period 1985–2014 showed increasing trends with uneven distribution across Europe. The greatest change (0.8 days per year) was observed in northern and eastern Europe, while it was less pronounced (0.6–0-8 days per year) in the major part of central Europe (including Slovenia) and was smallest in the Mediterranean region.

A lengthening of the growing season will have an effect on the expansion of more warmth-demanding plants towards northern parts of Europe. In southern Europe, changed conditions will enable the extension of the growing season into the winter months, while in the major part of central and south-eastern Europe, this will not be possible, but rather crops will be more exposed to dry and hot summers. Similar conditions can be expected in Slovenia, where phenological development is happening earlier due to an earlier start to the growing season, which greatly increases risks of freezing as surges of cold air from the north have become more common. Since 2010, three severe frosts reaching the proportions of a natural disaster have been recorded. The frequency of summer droughts has also been increasing – in the same period, Slovenian agriculture was hit by three severe summer droughts with consequences equalling a great natural disaster (2013, 2015, 2017).

In Slovenia, changes in the length of the cycle of vegetation are expressed as gradual changes in agricultural technology, which, owing to the nature of agricultural production, is a lengthy process. In introducing new technologies into agricultural practice, special account is to be taken of environmental factors, obligations to follow environmental protection legislation and supporting information systems (agro-meteorological data). In accordance with the National Environmental Action Programme, reduction of the burden caused by the changing length of the cycle of vegetation (introduction of new varieties) will require upgrading of existing legal and economic instruments for environmental protection (biodiversity, sustainable development), acting in line with the adopted international conventions (Framework Convention of the United Nations on Climate Change, United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, Convention on Biological Diversity), strengthening supervision over sources of environmental hazards, raising environmental awareness, enhancing knowledge on environmental issues, and encouraging sustainable agricultural practices.

 

 

 

 


Methodology

Date of data source summarization