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[PB08] Projections of Greenhouse Gass Emissions
State

Key message
Neutral

According to the projection based on existing measures, total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will remain at a level similar to today's until 2030 and will then begin to decline. Under the projection that includes additional measures, however, emissions will decrease dramatically – by 35% by 2030 and by 88% by 2050. The projections indicate that, with the intensive implementation of measures, it is possible to achieve the targets set for reducing total GHG emissions, as well as emissions from sources not covered by the Emissions Trading System (ETS). However, achieving the climate neutrality target by 2045 will require implementation of additional measures beyond those envisaged in NECP 2024 (National Energy and Climate Plan 2024).

Charts

Figure PB08-1: Historic GHG emissions and projections until 2050 with set targets
Sources:

JSI-EEC, NECP 2024

Show data
Actual emissions[kt CO2 eq] Projection with measures (WEM)[kt CO2 eq] Projeciton with additional measures (WAM)[kt CO2 eq] Target emissions - upper boundry[kt CO2 eq] Target emissions - lower boundry[kt CO2 eq]
2005 20645.12
2006 20817.82
2007 20998.56
2008 21717.82
2009 19548.58
2010 19773.31
2011 19695.23
2012 19062.05
2013 18360.93
2014 16703.29
2015 16900.64
2016 17798.04
2017 17896.27
2018 17744.90
2019 17235.21
2020 15994.53
2021 16149.77
2022 15655.04
2023 14870.19
2024 15483.81
2025 16497.42 15893.93
2030 16351.27 13412.53 13419.33 11354.82
2035 12089.32 7977.65
2040 11330.16 5763.52
2045 10217.68 4256.14
2050 9399.51 2539.16 4129.02 2064.51
Figure PB08-2: Projection of GHG emissions and sinks per sectors
Sources:

JSI-EEC, NECP 2024

Show data
TOTAL - net emissions[kt CO2 eq] LULUCF[kt CO2 eq] Total - emissions[kt CO2 eq] Waste[kt CO2 eq] Agriculture[kt CO2 eq] Industrial processes[kt CO2 eq] Non energy sectors[kt CO2 eq] Other sectors[kt CO2 eq] Transport[kt CO2 eq] Manufacturing industries and construction[kt CO2 eq] Energy industries+ Fugitive emissions[kt CO2 eq] Energy[kt CO2 eq]
2005 13379.54 -7216.60 20596.14 827.90 1762.96 1394.84 3985.71 2724.16 4401.53 2465.84 7018.90 16610.43
2006 13565.54 -7201.42 20766.96 775.63 1758.99 1439.07 3973.68 2467.46 4637.57 2602.11 7086.15 16793.28
2007 13396.75 -7549.51 20946.26 716.72 1810.51 1449.02 3976.26 2050.78 5240.23 2364.20 7314.80 16970.01
2008 14373.94 -7296.68 21670.62 642.09 1733.09 1322.51 3697.69 2407.16 6159.43 2336.43 7069.91 17972.93
2009 12270.23 -7229.73 19499.96 586.20 1741.96 985.89 3314.05 2290.91 5159.04 1958.45 6777.51 16185.91
2010 12569.95 -7156.16 19726.11 574.10 1705.10 986.70 3265.91 2316.68 5299.52 1933.78 6910.23 16460.21
2011 12594.83 -7056.65 19651.48 585.74 1688.08 997.66 3271.48 2057.64 5649.79 1733.72 6938.84 16379.99
2012 12040.90 -6981.25 19022.15 572.84 1671.27 1023.93 3268.03 1805.78 5668.41 1664.18 6615.75 15754.12
2013 13036.32 -5287.23 18323.55 551.38 1655.47 1091.07 3297.92 1723.84 5367.58 1659.34 6274.88 15025.63
2014 17145.38 484.91 16660.47 518.88 1696.86 1128.28 3344.02 1425.81 5383.57 1665.67 4841.40 13316.45
2015 17430.33 580.10 16850.22 531.73 1735.51 1108.30 3375.55 1541.65 5353.93 1611.37 4967.73 13474.68
2016 18462.30 727.98 17734.32 539.91 1751.75 1114.71 3406.37 1614.13 5726.99 1622.22 5364.61 14327.95
2017 18542.22 723.71 17818.51 521.80 1713.38 1173.24 3408.41 1485.31 5856.36 1704.35 5364.08 14410.10
2018 18477.33 821.77 17655.56 482.24 1708.42 1196.23 3386.89 1378.99 5834.82 1826.15 5228.72 14268.67
2019 12603.48 -4528.23 17131.71 463.22 1723.61 1211.04 3397.87 1365.38 5624.64 1753.80 4990.02 13733.85
2020 11561.97 -4432.56 15994.53 443.04 1742.26 1151.59 3336.89 1366.31 4650.27 1712.53 4928.54 12657.64
2021 11731.99 -4417.78 16149.77 421.07 1743.20 1127.48 3291.75 1366.31 5289.06 1742.09 4928.54 12858.02
2022 11390.93 -4264.10 15655.04 381.22 1670.75 1102.45 3154.42 1279.22 5873.31 1620.27 3727.82 12500.62
2023 10469.42 -4400.77 14870.19 378.14 1634.17 1009.07 3021.37 1262.29 5428.25 1513.97 3644.31 11848.82
2024 11032.27 -4451.53 15483.81 351.76 1634.05 986.67 2972.49 1335.21 5743.41 1494.60 3938.10 11812511.3248.82
2025 WEM 16064.58 -434.85 16499.43 370.27 1725.92 1101.22 3197.41 1106.87 5992.71 1843.43 4359.02 13302.02
2025 WAM 15199.37 -696.57 15895.94 370.27 1725.92 1101.12 3197.31 1076.25 5802.93 1568.18 4251.26 12698.63
2030 WEM 15558.49 -792.05 16350.54 303.53 1719.28 1057.97 3080.79 914.83 6190.51 1847.02 4317.39 13269.75
2030 WAM 11328.13 -2088.58 13416.71 303.53 1698.41 1057.01 3058.96 823.39 4349.73 1357.76 3826.88 10357.75
2035 WEM 12159.65 72.11 12087.53 260.11 1734.55 1005.31 2999.96 754.43 5544.61 1916.22 872.31 9087.58
2035 WAM 6282.43 -1704.24 7986.67 260.11 1641.83 498.67 2400.61 608.95 2869.40 888.79 1218.92 5586.06
2040 WEM 11173.68 -153.62 11327.30 228.65 1749.99 982.37 2961.01 649.27 4507.02 1990.30 1219.70 8366.29
2040 WAM 3591.14 -2187.38 5778.51 228.65 1584.18 471.06 2283.90 441.71 1657.30 725.50 670.10 3494.61
2045 WEM 9572.58 -641.31 10213.89 224.73 1761.87 987.51 2974.11 576.48 3231.62 2048.43 1383.26 7239.78
2045 WAM 1645.75 -2628.40 4274.15 224.73 1525.39 467.67 2217.78 285.95 552.48 515.97 701.96 2056.37
2050 WEM 8844.83 -549.99 9394.82 200.09 1773.87 994.83 2968.79 523.56 2033.89 2104.21 1764.38 6426.03
2050 WAM 66.57 -2498.06 2564.63 200.09 1433.00 475.64 2108.73 124.70 21.63 87.91 221.65 455.90
Figure PB08-3: Projections of GHG emissions for sources not included in the ETS (nonETS) compared to targets
Sources:

JSI-EEC, NECP 2024

Show data
Historical ETS emissions[kt CO2 eq] Projection of ETS emissions - WEM[kt CO2 eq] Projection of ETS emissions - WAM[kt CO2 eq] Indicative trajectory for cap for ETS emissions[kt CO2 eq] Historical nonETS emissions[kt CO2 eq] Projection of nonETS emissions - WEM[kt CO2 eq] Projection of nonETS emissions - WAM[kt CO2 eq] Target trajectory for nonETS emissions under EU regulation[kt CO2 eq] Target from NECP 2024[kt CO2 eq]
2005 8737.77 11904.64
2006 8836.98 11978.84
2007 9042.74 11953.63
2008 8753.91 12961.85
2009 7935.03 11611.59
2010 8002.03 11769.33
2011 7939.20 11753.28
2012 7579.85 11479.91
2013 7388.44 7495.23 10970.78 12323.92
2014 6113.76 7410.60 10587.68 12353.72
2015 6108.00 7325.97 10790.68 12383.52
2016 6369.05 7241.35 11426.99 12413.32
2017 6568.27 7156.72 11326.30 12203.09
2018 6490.34 7072.09 11252.56 12237.81
2019 6252.41 6987.47 10980.85 12272.53
2020 6094.62 6902.84 9898.34 9898.34 9898.34 12307.24
2021 5681.50 6544.59 10466.82 11403.19
2022 4861.18 6186.34 10792.18 11107.76
2023 4582.14 5828.09 10286.86 10813.74
2024 5007.46 5469.85 10474.85 10515.48
2025 5648.30 5388.75 5111.60 10849.11 10505.18 10217.22
2030 5628.74 4930.18 3320.35 10722.53 8482.35 8633.20 8571.34
Figure PB08-4: Projections of GHG emissions per sector for sources not included in the ETS (nonETS)
Sources:

JSI-EEC, NECP 2024

Show data
Energy[kt CO2 eq] Energy industries+ Fugitive emissions[kt CO2 eq] Manufacturing industries and construction[kt CO2 eq] Transport[kt CO2 eq] Other sectors[kt CO2 eq] Non energy sectors[kt CO2 eq] Industrial processes[kt CO2 eq] Agriculture[kt CO2 eq] Waste[kt CO2 eq] Total - emissions[kt CO2 eq]
2005 8829.64 635.37 1070.58 4399.52 2724.16 3075.00 438.14 1778.02 858.84 11904.64
2006 8939.42 649.20 1185.86 4636.90 2467.46 3039.42 457.21 1774.20 808.02 11978.84
2007 8890.27 633.17 966.34 5239.98 2050.78 3063.36 487.92 1825.52 749.92 11953.63
2008 10107.10 577.01 962.71 6160.21 2407.16 2854.75 435.08 1747.73 671.95 12961.85
2009 8835.76 583.21 802.11 5159.52 2290.91 2775.83 403.38 1756.97 615.47 11611.59
2010 9023.81 609.92 796.70 5300.51 2316.68 2745.52 424.12 1720.03 601.37 11769.33
2011 9022.01 624.41 689.49 5650.47 2057.64 2731.28 418.75 1702.81 609.71 11753.28
2012 8745.34 605.15 664.56 5669.86 1805.78 2734.58 455.07 1686.04 593.47 11479.91
2013 8295.72 578.42 620.42 5373.04 1723.84 2675.06 436.03 1670.26 568.77 10970.78
2014 7896.59 462.43 611.15 5397.20 1425.81 2691.09 445.92 1712.08 533.09 10587.68
2015 8022.48 491.47 611.34 5378.02 1541.65 2768.20 474.29 1750.62 543.29 10790.68
2016 8616.18 518.67 717.69 5765.68 1614.13 2810.81 493.93 1767.76 549.11 11426.99
2017 8585.35 548.98 641.48 5909.58 1485.31 2740.95 481.59 1730.38 528.98 11326.30
2018 8573.82 554.44 738.91 5901.48 1378.99 2678.74 466.14 1724.89 487.71 11252.56
2019 8285.47 538.39 682.16 5699.53 1365.38 2695.38 489.53 1739.40 466.45 10980.85
2020 7242.41 538.48 688.91 4648.70 1366.31 2655.94 470.64 1742.26 443.04 9898.34
2021 7848.06 510.67 782.32 5287.61 1267.46 2618.76 454.49 1743.20 421.07 10466.82
2022 8286.64 456.36 679.43 5871.63 1279.22 2505.53 453.57 1670.75 381.22 10792.18
2023 7825.83 453.02 683.46 5427.06 1262.29 2461.03 448.72 1634.17 378.14 10286.86
2024 8068.04 407.01 583.90 5741.92 1335.21 2406.81 420.99 1634.05 351.76 10474.85
2025 OU 8319.66 504.65 715.44 5992.71 1106.87 2529.45 435.27 1723.91 370.27 10849.11
2025 DUA 7975.82 477.90 618.74 5802.93 1076.25 2529.36 435.18 1723.91 370.27 10505.18
2030 WEM 8327.98 477.24 745.40 6190.51 914.83 2394.55 371.01 1720.01 303.53 10722.53
2030 WAM 6114.54 409.51 531.92 4349.73 823.39 2367.81 370.04 1694.24 303.53 8482.35
Last modified
09.09.2026
Author(s)

Matjaž Česen, JSI-EEC