KAZALCI OKOLJA

You are here

Key message
Bad

Temperatures in Slovenia are increasing at a rate faster than the global average. An increase in the annual average temperature has been most evident in the last three decades. Trends in annual precipitation are not as obvious as temperature trends, as variation between years and regions is significant. Changes in seasonal precipitation raise more concern than changes in annual precipitation. As evident from climate projections, atmospheric warming will continue, annual precipitation will not change significantly and summer precipitation is expected to decrease.


This indicator shows average annual air temperatures and annual precipitation in selected places in Slovenia in the period 1961–2015. The trend in average global temperatures is also presented, showing that 2015 was the warmest year on record. Climate projections of change in annual air temperature and annual precipitation based on indicators published by the European Environment Agency are also presented.

 


Charts

Figure PS04-1: Annual average temperature, Slovenia, 1961-2015
Sources: 

Meteorological Office, Slovenian Environment Agency, 2016

Show data
1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970
Kredarica °C -0.5 -2.7 -2.1 -1.2 -2.6 -1.8 -1.2 -2 -2.1 -2.2
Rateče °C 6.7 4.9 5.5 5.8 4.8 6.3 6.1 5.6 5.4 5.3
Murska Sobota °C 10 8.4 8.5 8.8 8.7 9.9 9.7 9.1 8.7 9
Novo mesto °C 9.9 8.3 8.8 8.9 8.6 9.9 9.6 9.4 8.8 9
Ljubljana °C 10.5 9 9.3 9.6 9 10.4 10.3 9.8 9.5 9.7
1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980
Kredarica °C -1.7 -1.8 -1.9 -2.1 -1.3 -2.3 -1.3 -2 -2 -2.4
Rateče °C 5.7 5.4 5.5 6.1 6.1 5.7 6 4.6 5.4 4.8
Murska Sobota °C 9.1 9 8.9 9.9 9.8 8.9 9.7 8.3 9.3 8.2
Novo mesto °C 9 9.2 9.2 10 10 9.1 10.1 8.6 9.8 8.8
Ljubljana °C 9.6 9.6 9.6 10.4 10.3 9.5 10.3 8.8 9.9 9
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
Kredarica °C -2.1 -1 -0.7 -2.4 -1.6 -1.3 -1.4 -1.2 -0.3 -0.6
Rateče °C 5.5 6.1 6.2 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.7 6.3 6.5 6.5
Murska Sobota °C 9.5 9.6 9.7 8.9 8.5 9 9 9.9 10.1 10.2
Novo mesto °C 9.8 10 10.1 9.4 8.9 9.1 9.5 10.2 10.3 10.5
Ljubljana °C 9.7 10.3 10.2 9.5 9.3 9.5 9.6 10.5 10.4 10.7
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Kredarica °C -1.6 -0.2 -1.1 -0.1 -1.4 -1.9 -0.6 -0.9 -1 0
Rateče °C 5.5 7 6.4 7.6 6.4 5.8 6.7 6.8 6.7 7.6
Murska Sobota °C 9.3 10.9 10 11.3 10.1 9 9.7 10.1 10.3 11.5
Novo mesto °C 9.6 10.8 10.3 11.5 10.3 9.3 10.1 10.6 10.6 12
Ljubljana °C 10 11.1 10.6 11.8 10.7 9.8 10.8 11 11 12.2
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Kredarica °C -1 -0.2 -0.5 -1.1 -1.7 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -1.8
Rateče °C 7 7.6 7 6.3 5.8 6.9 7.6 7.2 7.1 6.6
Murska Sobota °C 10.6 11.3 10.5 9.8 9.5 10.2 11.2 11.2 10.9 10.3
Novo mesto °C 11.1 11.4 11.1 10.2 9.9 10.9 11.6 11.3 11.4 10.3
Ljubljana °C 11.4 11.8 11.6 10.7 10.4 11.4 12.1 11.6 11.7 10.7
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Kredarica °C 0.2 -0.3 -0.6 0 0.6
Rateče °C 7.6 7.3 7.2 8 7.9
Murska Sobota °C 10.7 11.3 11 12 11.5
Novo mesto °C 11.3 11.6 11.2 12.3 12
Ljubljana °C 11.8 12.1 11.7 12.7 12.2
Figure PS04-2: Linear trend of annual air temperatures (in °C/decade), Slovenia, 1961-2011
Sources: 

Main characteristics of the air temperature trend,period 1961-2011, Ljubljana, September 2013,Slovenian Environment Agency

Figure PS04-3: Annual precipitation (in mm),Slovenia, 1961-2015
Sources: 

Archive of meteorological data, Slovenian Environment Agency, 2016

Show data
1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970
Kredarica mm 1984 1796 2416 1738 2469 1939 1836 2005 1880 1702
Rateče mm 1478 1706 1805 1499 2290 1711 1514 1657 1807 1682
Murska Sobota mm 786 931 832 866 1064 970 730 612 787 761
Novo mesto mm 972 1202 1146 1319 1341 1117 1019 882 1165 1160
Ljubljana mm 1372 1606 1431 1438 1839 1300 1119 1333 1445 1395
1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980
Kredarica mm 1239 1702 2081 1750 1999 1703 1700 2096 2214 2099
Rateče mm 1273 1692 1607 1359 1617 1480 1495 1736 1892 1638
Murska Sobota mm 563 1033 809 912 805 751 718 676 912 862
Novo mesto mm 855 1390 837 1250 1025 1038 1109 948 1250 1247
Ljubljana mm 1107 1607 1270 1412 1435 1425 1265 1469 1475 1535
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
Kredarica mm 1588 2325 1642 2456 1874 2079 2799 2256 1900 2545
Rateče mm 1312 1532 1200 1497 1494 1192 1655 1191 1319 1553
Murska Sobota mm 768 864 634 741 874 788 982 722 776 900
Novo mesto mm 1199 1181 944 1296 1257 1213 1232 1115 1229 1192
Ljubljana mm 1402 1418 1149 1424 1611 1265 1528 1178 1211 1331
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Kredarica mm 2148 2066 1802 1769 1680 1951 1800 2157 2376 2573
Rateče mm 1441 1483 1446 1327 1129 1597 1195 1401 1579 1891
Murska Sobota mm 804 689 677 989 924 1026 692 839 772 651
Novo mesto mm 1140 1264 1188 1211 1405 1245 991 1041 1299 827
Ljubljana mm 1182 1433 1177 1407 1423 1446 1230 1359 1501 1363
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Kredarica mm 2230 2093 1623 2241 1752 1885 1761 2180 2259 2343
Rateče mm 1440 1458 1653 1638 1237 1180 1311 1911 1782 1703
Murska Sobota mm 643 754 515 804 869 852 817 708 989 876
Novo mesto mm 1051 1379 886 1197 1382 1084 1114 1135 1066 1278
Ljubljana mm 1328 1288 1091 1696 1403 1141 1196 1490 1406 1798
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Kredarica mm 1497 2204 2176 2449 1755
Rateče mm 1293 1701 1600 2084 1233
Murska Sobota mm 693 782 912 1093 690
Novo mesto mm 834 1387 1259 1482 1085
Ljubljana mm 998 1339 1531 1851 1106
Figure PS04-4: 10-years average global temperature
Sources: 

World Meteorological Organization, The global climate 2001-2010, Decade of Climate Extremes, 2013

Show data
1881-1890 1891-1900 1901-1910 1911-1920 1921-1930 1931-1940 1941-1950 1951-1960 1961-1970 1971-1980
global temprerature (°C) °C 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.6 13.8 13.9 14 13.9 13.9 14
average (°C) °C
1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010
global temprerature (°C) °C 14.1 14.3 14.5
average (°C) °C
Figure PS04-5: Anomaly of global annual temperature relative to 1961-1990
Sources: 
Figure PS04-6: Projected change in annual, summer and winter precipitation
Figure PS04-7: Projected change in annual and summer precipitation

Goals

  • to regularly monitor temperatures and precipitation;
  • to identify long-term changes in the environment;
  • to collect information required to assess climate change;
  • to prepare expert documents for the reduction of potential negative impacts;
  • to provide expert documents for planning and providing protection, preparedness and cooperation of various sectors in adopting and carrying out appropriate adaptation measures.

 


Global climate is a very important factor in the development of human civilisation. Recently, the climate has been changing faster than any other time in the history of the human race and climate change is now considered to be one of the greatest challenges facing humankind (World Meteorological Organisation, 2016).

In lowland areas of Slovenia, 2015 was the second or third warmest year on record, following closely behind the warmest year of 2014. At Kredarica, average annual temperature in 2015 was 0.6 °C, which represents the highest mean annual temperature since weather conditions have been regularly recorded there. The monitoring data show that within the period 1951–2015, the greatest number of years with above-average mean annual temperatures occurred over the last three decades (Monthly bulletin of the Slovenian Environment Agency, 2016). The fastest growth trend was recorded in the last couple of decades of the previous century. This century, growth has slowed down slightly, until 2014 and 2015, when the trend of faster warming was resumed. Over the last 50 years, average annual temperature rose slightly more in the eastern part of Slovenia than in the western part. Although the rise of temperature was notable in all seasons of the year, it was highest during the summer. The growth trend is continuing and the Slovenian climate is already approximately 2 °C warmer than it was in the mid-20th century. After the exceptionally rainy year of 2014, precipitation in 2015 was mostly insufficient, except in the Bela krajina region. In Slovenia, regional differences in the amount of precipitation are very distinct. In the Julian Alps, average annual precipitation at certain locations exceeds 3,500 mm, while it rapidly decreases toward the east, with an annual average below 800 mm in the Prekmurje region. At the national level, annual precipitation in the period 1961–2011 decreased by 2–4%. The greatest decrease was recorded in western and southern Slovenia. The greatest change has been observed in spring, while in other seasons it has been less distinct. Contrary to temperature trends, precipitation trends differ considerably between regions, especially variability. More problems than variability of annual rainfall, though, are caused by deviations from average values in shorter periods of time lasting from a few days to several months, or between seasons. The effects of greater deviations from usual values can be manifested as droughts or floods, abundant precipitation can also cause landslides. During the summer months, trends differ between regions – in the north they tend to be positive, while they are negative in other parts of Slovenia, most notably along the Alpine-Dinaric barrier. In autumn, a negative trend prevails in the west, northwest, south and extreme northeast. During the winter months, trends are weak and regionally variable. Locally, natural climate variability still prevails over long-term trends. The data on climate trends in Slovenia in the period 1961–2013 is available on the Slovenian Environment Agency's website. According to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO, 2016), it is clearly evident from average annual global temperature data that 2015 was the warmest year since average annual temperatures began being monitored. In 2015, average global temperatures exceeded the pre-industrial average temperature by approximately 1°C. Part of an exceptional deviation in 2015 can be attributed to an extremely strong El Niño. It is important to know about past changes in order to understand climate. However, it is essential to predict the future development of climate in order to be able to adapt to changes that are soon to occur. For this purpose, projections of future climate changes have been developed. According to projection results available at the National Meteorological Service of the Slovenian Environment Agency, warming will continue throughout Slovenia. By mid-century, spring seasons will be 1.5°C warmer, while other seasons will be 2°C warmer. In terms of precipitation, climate scenarios show a much greater uncertainty. For springs and autumns, both a reduction and increase in the amount of precipitation can be expected. For winters and summers, the signal is more certain. Winter precipitation is likely to increase, while summer precipitation will probably decrease, at least in the southern half of the country.

The presented results are based on the A1B scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, which represents a mid-point between the most pessimistic and the most optimistic scenarios of future economic and social changes. More detailed results are available on the Slovenian Environment Agency's website. More detailed projections for Slovenia are being developed and will be published on the Slovenian Environment Agency's website when completed.

Average annual temperatures will increase throughout Europe (EEA, 2016). In Slovenia, the annual increase will be similar to the western and northern Balkans. During the summer, the temperature increase will be the greatest in southern Europe, while during the winter, it will be the greatest in the northern and north-eastern parts of the continent. The increase will depend on the growth in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The figure based on the European Environment Agency data presents average annual, summer and winter deviations in the period 1971–2000 from the average for the same period according to the RCP 4.5 (upper row) and 8.5 (lower row) scenarios.

Projections for the current century show that the average annual temperature in Slovenia will exceed the average for the period 1971–2000 by 3–4.5°C (EEA, 2016) in the worst scenario and by 2.5–3.5°C in a more favourable scenario of the rise of concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

According to an EEA indicator, a change of average precipitation for the period 2071–2100 is shown in relation to the average for the same period in a more unfavourable scenario of the rise of concentrations of greenhouse gases (RCP 8.5). In the Mediterranean, annual precipitation will decrease – more notably during summers when the effects of the decrease will be felt throughout southern Europe. In northern Europe, annual as well as summer precipitation will increase. For Slovenia, these projections show a slight increase in annual precipitation and a decrease during the summer months.

We are probably most vulnerable when it comes to activities related to the effects of precipitation variability. Our vulnerability is further aggravated by ill-considered activities affecting the environment and insufficient state funded water management intended to reduce flood risks. Also, there is no national strategy on adaptation to climate change.

 

 



TWITTER