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Temperature observations show the trend of increasing maximum and minimum absolute temperatures in the period 1961–2015, which indicates global warming. The number of hot days is increasing, including the frequency of extremely hot days with daily maximum temperature above 35 °C. In the summer of 2013, the highest temperature ever recorded in Slovenia was measured for the second time in history, while local temperature records were broken at several temperature measurement sites. The number of days with temperatures below zero shows a decline. However, precipitation (storms, hail) is more variable than temperatures. In the past two decades, Slovenia was faced with severe droughts that sometimes occurred in consecutive years, as well as with extensive flooding. Sometimes drought and floods occurred within the same year.


This indicator shows annual extremes: minimum and maximum air temperatures, number of days with temperatures above and below the selected threshold and maximum snow cover in six places across Slovenia.

Predicted changes in the number of days with snowfall and predicted changes in abundant winter and summer precipitation are based on data compiled by the European Environment Agency.


Charts

Figure PS07-1: Absolute maximum and minimum temperature, Slovenia, 1961-2015
Sources: 

Meteorological Data Archives, Meteorological Office, Slovenian Environment Agency, 2016

Show data
1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970
max. Kredarica °C 15.4 17.4 14 16.7 16.3 16.7 16.6 16.8 15.6 17
max. Rateče °C 29 29.8 28.6 28.4 30.4 29.4 30.6 30.4 30.5 29.3
max Murska Sobota °C 33.6 32.6 33.9 31.2 32 30.6 33.3 37.2 33.2 31.8
max. Novo mesto °C 33.8 33.9 35.4 32.3 34 30.4 34.2 36.2 31.8 32.6
max Ljubljana °C 33.9 33.5 33.8 32.2 34.7 31.3 33.5 35.3 33.6 33.2
max Portorož °C
min Kredarica °C -24.1 -25.8 -28 -21 -22.8 -21.3 -21.7 -26.7 -22.6 -22.6
min Rateče °C -21.2 -19 -23.2 -19.7 -19.8 -20.2 -20.4 -24.8 -23 -22
min Murska Sobota °C -22.4 -16.7 -31 -21.2 -18.4 -22.1 -23.8 -25.5 -27.6 -18.8
min Novo mesto °C -20.4 -17 -23.6 -17.1 -16.9 -17.8 -22.3 -23.4 -21.6 -18.4
min Ljubljana °C -15.2 -13.8 -20.2 -15.3 -11.5 -15.3 -13.7 -19.7 -16.3 -13.7
min Portorož °C
1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980
max. Kredarica °C 18.1 17.4 16.1 16.6 18.4 15 13.8 14.6 14 17.8
max. Rateče °C 32.1 29.2 28.4 30.7 28 30 28.8 26.7 27.4 28.5
max Murska Sobota °C 34.4 32.4 30.4 32.4 29.8 32.3 31.2 29.4 30.5 30.8
max. Novo mesto °C 36.4 32.5 31.7 32.9 31.2 32.6 31.1 31 32.6 31.6
max Ljubljana °C 36.5 33.2 31.4 33.1 32 34 32 29.6 31.8 32.8
max Portorož °C
min Kredarica °C -28.1 -19.1 -24 -17.7 -20.6 -22.2 -19.1 -19.9 -27.8 -22.2
min Rateče °C -22 -15.2 -18.8 -12.2 -17.6 -19.8 -17.7 -21.2 -22.7 -20.1
min Murska Sobota °C -18.6 -14 -17.5 -7.7 -11.2 -22.4 -20.7 -23.6 -20 -22.2
min Novo mesto °C -14.5 -10.9 -15.6 -7.5 -10.8 -15.9 -11.6 -16.7 -17 -17.3
min Ljubljana °C -14.7 -10 -16 -6.7 -9.9 -14.6 -8.4 -12.2 -14.5 -15.2
min Portorož °C
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
max. Kredarica °C 18 16.6 21.6 18.2 16 14.3 17 15.8 15.1 15.9
max. Rateče °C 29 28.8 36.1 31.8 29.3 29.7 27.8 29.8 29.1 28.4
max Murska Sobota °C 32.1 31.8 35.6 31.2 31.8 32.7 33.1 34.8 30.9 32.4
max. Novo mesto °C 31.7 31.7 34.7 33.5 32.1 32.5 31.7 34.3 30.4 33
max Ljubljana °C 33.7 32.8 37.1 33.3 33.1 32.7 33.2 34.9 32 33.4
max Portorož °C 33 34.9
min Kredarica °C -25.1 -23.4 -22.7 -21.1 -28.3 -22.6 -24.2 -21.4 -17.6 -19.6
min Rateče °C -21.8 -19.3 -20.2 -20.4 -26.4 -22 -24.3 -19.2 -14.2 -14.4
min Murska Sobota °C -21.6 -19 -17.4 -19.6 -26.4 -22.7 -26.9 -16.6 -13.1 -14.1
min Novo mesto °C -16.1 -12.2 -15.2 -13.7 -23.5 -17.1 -19.4 -15.1 -11.6 -13.4
min Ljubljana °C -14.4 -10.6 -14.1 -12.9 -20.3 -13.3 -18.3 -14.5 -11.4 -11.1
min Portorož °C -6.9 -5
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
max. Kredarica °C 16.6 17.8 15.4 16.1 17.8 14.3 16.8 17.8 17.4 18
max. Rateče °C 30.5 33.2 30.4 31.6 30.1 29.2 27.8 32.4 29.3 31
max Murska Sobota °C 33.2 37.2 35.2 34.1 31.4 32.2 30.4 33.5 32.9 37.9
max. Novo mesto °C 33.2 36.2 35.6 34.7 31.4 32 30 33.8 33.3 36.7
max Ljubljana °C 34.2 36.5 34.9 34.7 33.5 33.3 30.8 34.1 33.1 35.6
max Portorož °C 33.6 34.7 34.1 35.7 34.4 34.4 31.4 36.3 33 35
min Kredarica °C -25.3 -22.7 -25.2 -22.6 -20.8 -26.3 -17.8 -19.9 -24.8 -23.7
min Rateče °C -20.4 -15.6 -18.2 -17.6 -15.5 -20.8 -13.1 -16.7 -20.3 -20.4
min Murska Sobota °C -17.1 -11.5 -17.3 -17.5 -19.4 -21.3 -13.4 -15.6 -16 -14.6
min Novo mesto °C -15.8 -12.3 -18.6 -14 -11.7 -17.1 -9.5 -14.4 -14 -15.7
min Ljubljana °C -14.6 -11.3 -12.6 -10.6 -9.2 -13 -9.1 -13.1 -11.9 -14
min Portorož °C -10.3 -6.2 -6.8 -8.2 -6.4 -8.5 -4.4 -6.3 -5.5 -9.5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
max. Kredarica °C 16.9 16.7 18.6 15.6 18.4 17.3 18.2 16.4 17 16.2
max. Rateče °C 30.3 31.7 34.3 31.4 30.8 32.6 32.3 30.5 30.4 31.8
max Murska Sobota °C 35.6 34.1 38.4 33.4 33.4 33.3 39.1 33.2 33.7 33.5
max. Novo mesto °C 35.5 34 38.4 33 33.4 34.4 36.6 32.7 33.7 35.6
max Ljubljana °C 35.2 34.9 37.3 34.3 35 35.9 37 32.7 32.9 35.9
max Portorož °C 34.7 34 36.9 34.9 34.6 35.9 36.7 33.5 33.8 35.5
min Kredarica °C -24.2 -19.6 -20.9 -19.2 -25.8 -19.1 -18.4 -18.9 -23.1 -22.5
min Rateče °C -18.1 -17.5 -21 -20.1 -24.3 -20.4 -14 -16.7 -21.2 -20.7
min Murska Sobota °C -22 -13.7 -21.6 -18.8 -24.1 -22.6 -8.2 -11 -21.1 -20.3
min Novo mesto °C -15.1 -12.4 -18.2 -15.2 -17.2 -16.1 -9.4 -9.6 -15.9 -14.9
min Ljubljana °C -14.5 -12.9 -16.2 -11.2 -14.1 -15.7 -6.9 -7.7 -13.1 -11.9
min Portorož °C -7.8 -7.5 -8.8 -8.6 -10.5 -8.6 -3.6 -6.7 -9.9 -7.4
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
max. Kredarica °C 19.6 18.8 19.1 15.5 18.1
max. Rateče °C 32.8 33 35.8 31 32.4
max Murska Sobota °C 35 37.2 40.1 34.4 35.7
max. Novo mesto °C 36.7 37.8 39.9 33.6 35
max Ljubljana °C 36 37.1 40.2 35 36.5
max Portorož °C 35.1 36.8 37.3 33.6 37.4
min Kredarica °C -19.2 -25 -19.9 -20.4 -19.3
min Rateče °C -16.3 -17.4 -16.8 -14.2 -13.6
min Murska Sobota °C -10.4 -20.4 -15.5 -15.6 -11.7
min Novo mesto °C -10.3 -16.6 -10 -14.1 -14.8
min Ljubljana °C -7.6 -12.2 -7.2 -11 -9.6
min Portorož °C -5.7 -8.1 -3.8 -2 -3.5
Figure PS07-2: Number of hot days days, Slovenia, 1961-2015
Sources: 

Meteorological Data Archives, Meteorological Office, Slovenian Environment Agency, 2016

Show data
1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970
Kredarica number of days 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rateče number of days 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0
Murska Sobota number of days 9 8 16 3 3 2 13 8 5 4
Novo mesto number of days 10 19 15 3 10 4 15 8 7 6
Ljubljana number of days 11 18 14 9 11 4 19 8 9 12
Portorož number of days
1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980
Kredarica number of days 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rateče number of days 1 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0
Murska Sobota number of days 12 7 2 12 0 6 2 0 6 4
Novo mesto number of days 12 8 5 8 2 7 2 2 9 4
Ljubljana number of days 18 10 9 18 5 8 4 0 7 8
Portorož number of days
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
Kredarica number of days 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rateče number of days 0 0 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0
Murska Sobota number of days 6 5 14 2 9 7 12 19 6 11
Novo mesto number of days 7 3 11 6 8 10 10 16 4 9
Ljubljana number of days 8 10 18 5 17 12 12 24 7 10
Portorož number of days 10 17
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Kredarica number of days 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rateče number of days 1 14 1 7 1 0 0 5 0 2
Murska Sobota number of days 11 36 29 30 7 6 1 18 10 33
Novo mesto number of days 9 22 25 25 6 7 2 23 13 31
Ljubljana number of days 17 28 21 32 16 7 3 33 13 29
Portorož number of days 28 28 24 52 23 8 10 37 29 25
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Kredarica number of days 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rateče number of days 3 3 17 3 3 12 8 1 2 10
Murska Sobota number of days 32 21 55 15 14 27 29 20 16 22
Novo mesto number of days 30 12 58 14 15 25 23 16 22 23
Ljubljana number of days 29 15 54 14 16 31 24 18 25 22
Portorož number of days 37 18 70 24 25 39 37 42 39 23
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Kredarica number of days 0 0 0 0 0
Rateče number of days 8 11 16 1 13
Murska Sobota number of days 23 41 29 14 40
Novo mesto number of days 31 39 31 12 45
Ljubljana number of days 31 40 35 15 44
Portorož number of days 30 58 44 12 52
Figure PS07-3: Number of days with maximum temperature below 0 °C, Slovenia, 1961-2015
Sources: 

Meteorological Data Archives, Meteorological Office, Slovenian Environment Agency, 2016

Show data
1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970
Kredarica number of days 131 187 148 171 174 156 142 165 166 174
Rateče number of days 31 43 56 41 39 33 35 43 57 40
Murska Sobota number of days 25 33 60 35 18 23 19 38 42 28
Novo mesto number of days 18 31 54 32 14 18 20 29 38 25
Ljubljana number of days 22 31 49 31 17 23 20 28 35 22
Portorož number of days
1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980
Kredarica number of days 162 172 162 196 165 171 141 164 163 167
Rateče number of days 36 45 27 6 15 35 28 40 31 48
Murska Sobota number of days 36 32 15 1 5 25 16 30 18 31
Novo mesto number of days 26 30 13 3 6 22 13 26 14 24
Ljubljana number of days 29 22 14 1 11 17 9 20 12 21
Portorož number of days
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
Kredarica number of days 148 151 130 166 164 149 160 149 126 127
Rateče number of days 34 26 25 36 43 45 41 13 13 26
Murska Sobota number of days 17 28 24 19 40 45 39 10 14 20
Novo mesto number of days 16 26 18 20 32 37 28 6 7 16
Ljubljana number of days 17 21 11 16 31 36 23 13 6 16
Portorož number of days 0 0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Kredarica number of days 165 131 128 137 148 159 143 147 126 124
Rateče number of days 45 21 28 17 28 37 22 28 26 18
Murska Sobota number of days 24 12 28 16 23 46 22 23 27 19
Novo mesto number of days 20 15 24 13 16 46 15 19 20 12
Ljubljana number of days 25 15 21 5 7 37 12 17 20 12
Portorož number of days 1 0 1 1 0 3 0 0 0 0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Kredarica number of days 151 121 144 142 142 132 127 151 155 169
Rateče number of days 33 21 22 29 50 28 7 16 31 54
Murska Sobota number of days 20 21 23 19 22 27 15 10 20 26
Novo mesto number of days 15 18 22 14 19 14 18 9 23 26
Ljubljana number of days 17 14 14 14 11 15 11 8 21 25
Portorož number of days 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Kredarica number of days 123 130 148 117 111
Rateče number of days 21 31 23 14 11
Murska Sobota number of days 21 20 14 12 7
Novo mesto number of days 19 19 11 9 5
Ljubljana number of days 13 20 10 6 2
Portorož number of days 0 6 0 0 0
Figure PS07-4: Maximum snow cover depth (cm), Slovenia, 1961-2015
Sources: 

Meteorological Data Archives, Meteorological Office, Slovenian Environment Agency, 2016

Show data
1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970
Kredarica cm 318 335 304 282 391 270 348 362 392 450
Rateče cm 82 95 125 96 178 68 110 101 181 167
Murska Sobota cm 10 43 53 22 23 23 23 14 50 30
Novo mesto cm 22 42 59 52 30 37 57 20 103 34
Ljubljana cm 41 21 54 42 39 37 40 49 95 45
Portorož cm
1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980
Kredarica cm 299 411 405 360 560 300 690 587 630 420
Rateče cm 107 100 130 85 135 112 104 190 102 106
Murska Sobota cm 28 24 17 3 3 31 18 23 17 31
Novo mesto cm 51 35 37 20 7 52 21 28 27 40
Ljubljana cm 53 49 12 11 14 69 28 35 20 30
Portorož cm
1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990
Kredarica cm 280 350 390 500 495 490 405 425 220 310
Rateče cm 118 92 82 173 90 113 114 75 17 71
Murska Sobota cm 38 11 42 25 24 61 44 12 0 10
Novo mesto cm 37 19 50 54 45 50 43 20 4 9
Ljubljana cm 31 14 67 47 55 46 89 15 1 7
Portorož cm 0 0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Kredarica cm 440 380 205 370 380 325 250 315 385 325
Rateče cm 110 42 73 75 71 98 58 26 119 40
Murska Sobota cm 20 4 35 30 30 33 27 16 31 7
Novo mesto cm 22 32 50 62 44 52 25 25 65 17
Ljubljana cm 21 20 18 32 30 35 39 21 56 11
Portorož cm 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Kredarica cm 700 195 240 465 245 495 300 435 560 450
Rateče cm 38 14 45 125 107 124 82 132 136 79
Murska Sobota cm 21 8 27 18 46 37 9 5 11 27
Novo mesto cm 16 19 52 42 37 24 28 11 24 50
Ljubljana cm 14 21 26 41 40 32 19 17 23 48
Portorož cm 0 0 3 0 7 0 0 0 1 8
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Kredarica cm 395 240 475 560 245
Rateče cm 27 28 115 120 40
Murska Sobota cm 3 14 40 14 8
Novo mesto cm 6 44 65 30 49
Ljubljana cm 3 27 53 26 28
Portorož cm 0 11 8 0 0
Figure PS07-5: Projected changes in annual snowfall days, Europe
Sources: 

European Environment Agency, Indicators, Snow cover, 2016.

Note: The figure shows projected changes in the number of days with snow between the periods 1971-2000 and 2041-2070. Left figure shows snowfall over 1 cm, the right snowfall over 10 cm. In Slovenia it is expected to reduce the number of days with snow at least 1 cm from 1 to 5 days and sometimes up to 10 days. For heavier snowfall over 10 cm per day, for the most part of the country is not expected to change significantly.

Figure PS07-6: Projected changes in heavy precipitation in winter (left) and summer (right), Europe 
Sources: 

European Environment agency, Indicators, Precipitation extremes, 2016

Note: The figure shows change in heavy rainfall (in percents) between the periods 1971-2000 and 2071-2100 in the adverse scenario of rising greenhouse gases. On the left are the changes in the winter period and on the right changes in the summer period. In summer, figure shows a small increase in the northeast of Slovenia and in winter significant increase throughout the country.


Goals

  • to monitor and analyse the data on extreme weather events;
  • to mitigate the adverse effects and sensitivity caused by extreme weather events;
  • to incorporate adjustment mechanisms into development plans.

In this century, we are witnessing more and more severe weather events and weather changes, often with catastrophic consequences (World Meteorological Organisation, The global climate 2001–2010, 2013). Aside from the growing frequency of extreme events, our modern way of life and ill-considered activities affecting the environment have been resulting in increasing damage caused by such events.

There were an increasing number of deviations from usual weather conditions in the period 1961–1990. Droughts and floods caused by abundant precipitation have been becoming increasingly common. Downpours and fierce storms with strong wind gusts have been taking place each year and heat waves are becoming more frequent and more severe.

In the 1961–2015 period, the rising trend of absolute maximum and absolute minimum temperatures was observed, which points to climate change. The absolute annual minimum temperature has been growing, whereas this trend is less apparent with absolute maximum air temperature. In this century, a notably greater frequency of very hot days has been observed with temperatures up to or over 35ºC. In the summer of 2013, the all-time highest temperature was recorded at several meteorological stations and the highest Slovenian temperature ever recorded was matched.

The summer of 2003 stands out for its temperatures; it was exceptional due to its length and heat intensity. During this summer, there were a record number of hot days. No summer recorded in the long-term series of data, reaching more than 150 years back in this region, can be compared to the summer of 2003. The number of hot days per annum is rising and the number of cold days is decreasing.

However, as natural variability is greater than the long-term trend, differences between individual years are considerable, while the trend is seemingly less obvious. According to the foreseen development of the global climate, an average summer in the second half of this century will be as hot as the summer of 2003.

The data on the maximum snow depth in lowland areas reveals a downward trend, while in high mountainous regions, variation from year to year is significant. There is also no evidence to conclude that the lack of snow cover in lowlands means a modest snow cover in high mountainous regions. 2001 was exceptional for its snow cover in high mountainous regions, where the all-time record snow depth was measured, while in the lower regions, the same winter was ordinary. In the western Julian Alps, snow cover was exceptionally abundant in November and December 2008. Nevertheless, snow is expected to be less abundant in the future, in lowlands and mountainous regions, alike. In December 2015, there was no snow cover at Kredarica for most of the month. In the lowlands, a trend of declining snow cover in the spring months has been observed. Most damage of crops is caused by late snowfall.

In Europe, a change in snow cover is to be expected in future decades, which will affect the albedo of the ground, water reserves, flora and fauna, ecological conditions, agriculture, forestry, tourism, winter sports, transport and electricity production.

Nevertheless, variation in precipitation is much greater than in temperature (World Meteorological Organisation, 2013). Precipitation regimes are changing, which affects the number of days with precipitation above the selected thresholds. Regional differences can be a result of different precipitation regimes. Apart from changes over the course of the year, changes in the frequency and intensity of precipitation during individual seasons of the year are more important.

Each year, there are more storms with strong winds, downpours and hail. Extremely intensive precipitation that lasts a few hours or perhaps a day or two occurs locally, potentially causing landslides and local flooding. Almost every year, there are incidents of powerful winds that uncover roofs and topple trees. Disastrous droughts and floods are becoming more and more common, sometimes occurring in consecutive years and sometimes within the same year.

For a number of years, the National Meteorological Service has been publishing descriptions of extraordinary weather events on the website Izredni dogodki (ARSO, 2016). The descriptions include a detailed analysis of weather conditions that led to an extraordinary event, a comparison of measured values with historic values and an assessment of the return period for the measured values.

 

 



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